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Notes in Samsara
Politics, Culture, American Buddhism, Economics, and Technology
Wednesday, August 31, 2005
  Cindy Sheehan was sort of right- Bush bears some responsibility for the disaster in New Orleans...



Sorry Mossback, but Cindy Sheehan's right and you're wrong. We
already have in the public record the equivalent 9/11 Aug 6 PDB for New Orleans
:

Biblical in its uncontrolled rage and scope, Hurricane Katrina has left millions of Americans to scavenge for food and shelter and hundreds to thousands reportedly dead. With its main levee broken, the evacuated city of New Orleans has become part of the Gulf of Mexico. But the damage wrought by the hurricane may not entirely be the result of an act of nature.

A year ago the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers proposed to study how New Orleans could be protected from a catastrophic hurricane, but the Bush administration ordered that the research not be undertaken. After a flood killed six people in 1995, Congress created the Southeast Louisiana Urban Flood Control Project, in which the Corps of Engineers strengthened and renovated levees and pumping stations. In early 2001, the Federal Emergency Management Agency issued a report stating that a hurricane striking New Orleans was one of the three most likely disasters in the U.S., including a terrorist attack on New York City. But by 2003 the federal funding for the flood control project essentially dried up as it was drained into the Iraq war. In 2004, the Bush administration cut funding requested by the New Orleans district of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for holding back the waters of Lake Pontchartrain by more than 80 percent. Additional cuts at the beginning of this year (for a total reduction in funding of 44.2 percent since 2001) forced the New Orleans district of the Corps to impose a hiring freeze. The Senate had debated adding funds for fixing New Orleans' levees, but it was too late.

The New Orleans Times-Picayune, which before the hurricane published a series on the federal funding problem, and whose presses are now underwater, reported online: "No one can say they didn't see it coming ... Now in the wake of one of the worst storms ever, serious questions are being asked about the lack of preparation."


The Bush administration's policy of turning over wetlands to developers almost certainly also contributed to the heightened level of the storm surge. In 1990, a federal task force began restoring lost wetlands surrounding New Orleans. Every two miles of wetland between the Crescent City and the Gulf reduces a surge by half a foot. Bush had promised "no net loss" of wetlands, a policy launched by his father's administration and bolstered by President Clinton. But he reversed his approach in 2003, unleashing the developers. The Army Corps of Engineers and the Environmental Protection Agency then announced they could no longer protect wetlands unless they were somehow related to interstate commerce.

In response to this potential crisis, four leading environmental groups conducted a joint expert study, concluding in 2004 that without wetlands protection New Orleans could be devastated by an ordinary, much less a Category 4 or 5, hurricane. "There's no way to describe how mindless a policy that is when it comes to wetlands protection," said one of the report's authors. The chairman of the White House's Council on Environmental Quality dismissed the study as "highly questionable," and boasted, "Everybody loves what we're doing."


One of the aspects about being a responsible adult is that one tends to prepare and defend one's life and loved ones against the "system shits the bed" sceneario.

Bush and his supporters haven't been the types of folks who go in for ...well... planning.

Not that he's completely to blame: New Orleans is one of those places that people 500 years from now will consider and say, "How could they have been so stupid as to build a city there in the first place?"

We now have a disaster on a par with the 1906 earthquake in San Francisco. It could have been prevented.


 
  London blogging...New Orleans panic...



London- It's kind of odd to be in a London Hilton that doesn't have CNN, but does have Dubai TV. (It doesn't have al Jazeera either, for that matter.)

I finally got internet access today. (Getting into my hotel room was an ordeal in itself- suffice to say though, that after years of doing this, I know that when they say they "don't have a room available," if you have a reservation, and are a frequent stayer, they do indeed have a room for you. All you have to do is apply polite stress to the system, watching, measuring results, and they will come through. It's one of the side benefits I got from reading Herb Cohen's book on negotiating. It's a fine room, too.)

It appears from the UK, - seeing the first headlines in the NY Times since I left the US, that New Orleans is this years' 9/11.

NEW ORLEANS, Aug. 31 - Chaos gripped New Orleans on Wednesday as looters ran wild, food and water supplies dwindled, bodies floated in the floodwaters, the evacuation of the Superdome began and officials said there was no choice but to abandon the city devastated by Hurricane Katrina, perhaps for months.

President Bush pledged vast assistance but acknowledged, "This recovery will take years."

For the first time, a New Orleans official suggested the scope of the death toll. Mayor C. Ray Nagin said the hurricane might have killed thousands in his city alone, an estimate that, if correct, would make it the nation's deadliest natural disaster since the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and fire, which killed up to 6,000 people.

"We know there is a significant number of dead bodies in the water," and others hidden from view in attics and other places, Mayor Nagin told reporters. Asked how many, he said: "Minimum, hundreds. Most likely, thousands."

As survivors struggled with a disaster that left damage of up to $25 billion, a gargantuan relief effort began. Ships, planes, helicopters and convoys of supplies and rescue teams converged on the Gulf Coast, and Pentagon officials said 30,000 National Guard and active-duty troops would be deployed by this weekend in the largest domestic relief effort by the military in the nation's history.

With police officers and National Guard troops giving priority to saving lives, looters brazenly ripped open gates and ransacked stores for food, clothing, television sets, computers, jewelry and guns, often in full view of helpless law-enforcement officials. Dozens of carjackings, apparently by survivors desperate to escape, were reported, as were a number of shootings.


Having been to New Orleans in the past year and 1/2, I'm pretty shocked by this; not surprised- after all, New orleans was a low lying city in Hurricane Alley- but this is pretty devastating.




 
Tuesday, August 30, 2005
  Very Brief Hiatus...



I'm off on a rather extensive business trip (出張で). In a couple of days I'll be blogging from London, then Japan, then Beijing.

Beijing should be cool...


 
  "I'll see you Cindy Sheehan and I'll raise you Hugo Chavez..."



Seriously, though, Jesse Jackson's meeting with Chavez might be able to do some good.

It can't hurt. And who knows? And maybe Al Sharpton will galvanize African American sentiment for a reasonable exit from Iraq. It'd be nice though, if he seriously addressed Tawanna Brawley for us European Americans. I know he's older and wiser, and, frankly, would have made a better president than the current one. (Who'd doubt Al Sharpton would use force against our enemies?)

With Jackson meeting Chavez, and Martin Sheen and Cindy Sheehan engaging in a "bearing witness" as well, it's good to see the best traditions of progressive Christianity in action (and not surprisingly more people seem to approve of Sheehan's practices than Bush's at this point), as opposed to the folks who want to repeal the 14th Amendment and bring back the confederacy. (Also see this.)

With regard to that last link, I agree with Joe Carter when he asserts that the "dominionists" make up a small percentage of evangelicals. Having said that, I suppose it would be good now and then if one were truly able to actually uninvite one's self from another's blogroll...


 
  What else would it do but be able to download directly?



I usually don't blog about technical issues, for the same reasons that flowers don't make noise. (Actually, I've never blogged about what I actually do...and the recent stressful spate of work has set up something rather cool for me. If I can pull it off. And now back to something completely different...)

Link

SAN FRANCISCO, Aug. 29 - Apple Computer and Motorola plan to unveil a long-awaited mobile phone and music player next week that will incorporate Apple's iTunes software, a telecommunications industry analyst who has been briefed on the announcement said on Monday...

It was not clear whether the iTunes phone would allow users to download songs directly from the Internet onto the phone, though music industry analysts said they doubted that such a capability would be immediately available. Mike McGuire, an online-music analyst with Gartner Inc., a research firm, said that so-called over-the-air downloads would first require ironing out technological and music-licensing issues.

But the day of wireless downloads of full songs is not far off, according to major wireless carriers. Sprint said on Monday that by the end of the year it planned to offer phones that allowed users to download full songs wirelessly. Mr. Nelson of Verizon Wireless said his company was also in the final stages of developing such a capability.


Oh, yeah, right the "technological" issues stem from the fact that infrastructure for high bandwidth apps sucks in the US...it's that wonderful, magical, mystical, hidden hand of the "free" market there...

Carrying one less device would be a wonderful thing.


 
Monday, August 29, 2005
  "What I am feeling is water falling on my head"



First words from live video feed from MSNBC on Katrina.

Maybe they'll have updated the link by the time you read this but the very silliness of real-time reporting on this is absurd...


 
Sunday, August 28, 2005
  Hurricane thoughts...



New Orleans is a cool city; it's too bad they're going to get at least partially slammed.

It'll be bad because of its topography, but they'll survive.

I wonder if the above ground cemeteries will be OK. I don't know, but that seems kind of important to me.

I've always liked hurricanes (it's like an imposed party complete with candles if you're not being flooded or otherwise in a precarious state of life), but they were a pain in the but if you had a real life to live when they hit.

One other question: what's happening to the folks in jails?



 
Saturday, August 27, 2005
  Suicide bombers, poor rural military recruits and sex



Richard Bennett correctly identifies the sublimation of sex as a rationale for suicide bombers; what he missed is the connection between sexual potency and poverty and lack of opportunity. Lack of opportunity- it can be religiously imposed or due to poverty; but you know what? This exists everywhere - even in the US- and one side effect of poverty is alienation from one's self and one's community and society, with the resulting either a gross over-exaggeration of sexual performance or impotency. Either way, it's dysfunctional sexual behavior.

Rx: Gang of Four's songs:



They were probably after Richard's time...


 
  Why the price of oil will continue to go up - part III



This Kos diary says almost all of it.


The only other thing I'd add: there are still media business types saying prices might go down.

That's how you know that even if it's a bubble, it's not near bursting yet.


 
Friday, August 26, 2005
  Why the price of oil will continue to go up - part II



I was but a young lad so it seems, when I left my first company after some 8 years of service...I remember a meeting I had with the VP of R&D, and discussed the many ills that company had, and after the meeting, I had realized a fundamental truth: often dysfunctional organizations are intentionally planned to be that way.

With Iraq having massive demonstrations in opposition to its proposed new constitution, it might be asked, "Was this planned?"

I suspect so, and so does Tom Hayden...

Far from planting democracy, US policy is squelching what little democracy there is, threatening to dismember Iraq, causing a civil war that will be the pretext for US troops to remain, and re-arranging the Middle East to include a de facto Shiite alliance from Teheran to Basra. That's why Bush can find no "noble purpose". It is about a war for dominance, not democracy.


The only problem, though, is that continuing civil war will mean continuing threats to oil supplies. There can't be "dominance," because the civil war has in it the prospect- pointed out months ago by Gwynne Dyer- that the Iraqis will eventually realize this is a suckers' game.

In the meantime, there will be threats to oil supplies- because that's why we're there.

If they can stop the oil flow, they win against this gambit. But we lose, and lots of folks die. As long as there's no clear resolution, there's uncertainty and oil will be pricey.



 
  "Porn makes you bind" - distractions distract...



Link

Vanderbilt Uni psychologist David Zald and his team exposed [human] guinea pigs to a barrage of "disturbing" images interspersed with landscape or architectural snaps, telling them to scan the images for a certain target image. The press release explains: "An irrelevant, emotionally negative or neutral picture preceded the target by two to eight items. The closer the negative pictures were to the target image, the more frequently the subject failed to spot the target. In a subsequent study, which has not yet been published, the researchers substituted erotic for negative images and found the same basic effect."

The bottom line is, says Zald: "We observed that people fail to detect visual images that appeared one-fifth of a second after emotional images, whereas they can detect those images with little problem after neutral images."

So, what's it all about? Well, the boffins reckon it's related to the "rubbernecking" concept - the process whereby you try and drive by an accident without having a shufti but "our emotions of concern, fear and curiosity cause us to stare out the window at the accident and slow to a crawl as we drive by"...

In the second experiment, the researchers sought to determine if individuals can override their emotion-induced blindness by focusing more deliberately on the target for which they are searching. In this experiment, the subjects undertook two different trials. In one they were told specifically to look for a rotated photo of a building; in the other they were told to look for a rotated photo of either a building or a landscape.

The research team hypothesized that the more specific instruction - to look for the building only - would help the research subjects override their emotion-induced blindness. After running the tests, the researchers discovered that they were partially right: specific instructions helped some subjects control their attention, but it didn't help others.




There's reasons people spend time on cusions cultivating ki...


 
Thursday, August 25, 2005
  While oil will keep going up until at least 2006



Oh, there'll be ups and downs, but the long term trend is up, up, up.

Yes, part of ihe story is peak oil, about which nobody's doing anything yet.

But the main reason oil will continue to go through the roof is Iraq.

Some points:

This time it is about our very hegemony in the region that's at stake: our task is either to make Iraq a stable, prosperous, "Germany-like" (that is, the Germany of today) American "friend" or - or- give up the very way of life as we've known it for about 60 years.

Now... how likely do you reallythink that Iraq will be "Germany-like?" How about Saudi Arabia?

See where I'm heading?

The whole world knows, dammit, that our Achilles heel is cheap oil at the hands of religious fundamentalists and people who've been screwed by our policy of coddling dictators.

They're not likely to turn into "Germany-like" overnight.

So oil is going up, up, and away.

It was better to let sleeping Saddam Hussiens lie if ther wasn't an exit strategy from imported oil.

Period.


 
  It's time to put away dreams of John McCain being a "moderate" alternative to Bush



The guy's pandering to the creationist crowd:



n Tuesday, though, he sided with the president on two issues that have made headlines recently: teaching intelligent design in schools and Cindy Sheehan, the grieving mother who has come to personify the anti-war movement.

McCain told the Star that, like Bush, he believes "all points of view" should be available to students studying the origins of mankind.



 
  What some "Maoists" think of Tibet...



You can't make this stuff up
:

MIM believes the people of Tibet and China should cooperate economically under capitalism and not fight. That means that if the World Bank supports Han Chinese settlement into Tibet, we should not oppose it either! It's not a question of national culture, but one of economic survival. There is plenty of land in Tibet. The real question is economic development.

If the Tibetans take up Maoism, we support their evicting the Dengist regime from Tibet. If on the other hand Han Chinese return to socialism, they should oppose the "Free Tibet" movement and struggle to make sure Tibet progresses socially and economically. Either way there will be Tibetans and Han Chinese inclined to the Maoist road and there will be those who want capitalism or something even more backward.


Like I said, you can't make this stuff up. This is what real self-styled Maoists sound like.

Also noteworthy:



Now, of course I think these folks are Koo-Koo for Cocoa Puffs TM, and I post this merely to note its extreme oddity. All in all, though, I'd say their viewpoints seem much closer to some necons' viewpoints than my viewpoints, by a mile...


 
  Try a little tenderness

When Americans talk about "the lessons of Vietnam," they usually mean failed policies and programs that shouldn't be repeated. But there were some successes in the Vietnam War, including an initiative to win the allegiance of captured and defecting Vietcong and North Vietnamese fighters by treating them generously and reshaping their attitudes. This idea - that harsh treatment of prisoners can be less effective than showing compassion - now deserves a test in Iraq.

The program in Vietnam was called Chieu Hoi, roughly translated as "open arms." While rarely effective against the most hard-core and high-ranking insurgents, Chieu Hoi succeeded in winning the support of nearly 200,000 fighters for the American-backed government of South Vietnam.

Under Chieu Hoi, defectors and prisoners who proved cooperative received clemency against treason charges as well as good food, health care, vocational training and jobs. At the same time, they were systematically indoctrinated with literature, classes and activities to persuade them to support the South Vietnamese government...

Captured enemy documents now in the archives of the Army Special Operations Command discuss the powerful effect of Chieu Hoi on the enemy. One Vietcong report from 1966 says: "The impact of increased enemy military operations and 'Chieu Hoi' programs has, on the whole, resulted in lowering of morale of some ideologically backward men, who often listen to enemy radio broadcasts, keep in their pockets enemy leaflets, and wait to be issued weapons. This attitude on their part has generated an atmosphere of doubt and mistrust among our military ranks." The Vietcong feared the program, and expended a great deal of effort in attempting to thwart it through assassinations, infiltration and counterpropaganda.

So what does this have to do with Iraq? While Chieu Hoi was geared to counter a Communist threat, it was based on universal principles of counterinsurgency that could easily be applied to the current struggle. In fact, Chieu Hoi was something of an import in its own right: it was the brainchild of three men with long experience battling rebels. One was Sir Robert Thompson, who led the British Advisory Mission in Vietnam and was renowned for his work in Britain's quelling of the Communist insurgency in Malaya in the 1950's. The others were Rufus Phillips, a former C.I.A. official working for the United States Agency for International Development, and Charles Bohannan, a retired Army colonel; this pair had led the American effort in late 1940's to stop the Huk insurgency in the Philippines.

They designed Chieu Hoi to focus on changing the underlying attitudes of the subjects, not simply on trying to control their behavior. Empirical research in social psychology reveals that efforts to directly control behavior through coercion or bribery usually leave underlying attitudes intact, or even harden them. Thus putting a gun to a man's head and instructing him to support a particular political ideology will work only as long as the gun is present and he is being watched. The preferred method for long-term change is instilling sincere belief in the new political ideology, making the gun and monitoring unnecessary.




I would submit that while it is true that "winning their hearts and minds" by changing their underlying attitudes is absolutely necessary and morally the only direction in which to go with prisoners of any stripe, it seems to me like this is speaking long after the cows have left the barn. Just like in Vietnam.

For what everone remembers is not this "successful" program, but the picture above, and what everyone will have burned into their brains is not how nice we can be once we've decided to drop the bad imitation of the Brittish in Northern Ireland/Israelis in Palestine, but Abu Ghraib.

It's actually more shocking that they have to publish an article like this - "see! we can get a lot by being nice to them!" - as though torture and Abu Ghraib was somehow the norm nowadays.

But - probably echoing the earlier articles on this topic from the Atlantic- it's OK, I guess to remind folks that this torture stuff only backfires.

And that folks who champion it ought to worry about karma...



 
Wednesday, August 24, 2005
  Stupid NY Times Story of the day...
Secular Iraqis Say New Charter May Curb Rights, says the title, but right under it, "President Bush, however, asserted that the Iraqi document guaranteed women's rights and freedom of religion."

Now let us first say that George W. Bush is either over optimistic or being disingenuous and I'd suspect intentionally so.

Here is the constitution
. It says pretty plainly:

CHAPTER ONE: Basic Principles

Article (1): The Republic of Iraq is an independent, sovereign nation, and the system of rule in it is a democratic, federal, representative (parliamentary) republic.

Article (2): First, Islam is the official religion of the state and is a basic source of legislation:

a) No law can be passed that contradicts the undisputed rules of Islam.

b) No law can be passed that contradicts the principles of democracy.

c) No law can be passed that contradicts the rights and basic freedoms outlined in this constitution.

Second, this constitution guarantees the Islamic identity of the majority of the Iraqi people, and the full religious rights for all individuals, and the freedom of creed and religious practices.


Now those secular Iraqis might know of which they speak. What is not clearly expressed - what remains vague here- are all kinds of issues which courts rule in the US.

The big example in my head here: what about apostasy?

Clearly secular Iraqis must have that in mind above all. And it seems pretty clear: you can't really have an Islamic state without some sanctions for apostasy, and if you have that, freedom of religion is out the window.

Maybe I'm wrong here, but that's how it looks to me. Maybe religious Iraqis will merely feel a "powerful sense of rage" in response to apostates, and let the alone.

But I suspect that's not the case.

With all the reports about the agitation for Islamic law in Iraq, if I were a secular Iraqi, I'd take no comfort in armchair 101st keyboarders hailing the Iraqi draft consitutiton as a "decent compromise."



 
Tuesday, August 23, 2005
  DC Media Girl Roasts Malkin, and in the process her associates



Here, and here.

Michelle Malkin...Michelle Maglalang...even her name is a dimestore joke.


 
  More evidence of Bush's popularity




Bill Moyer, 73, wears a "Bullshit Protector" flap over his ear while President George W. Bush addresses the Veterans of Foreign Wars. (AP Photo/Douglas C. Pizac)


If even the National Post is publishing stuff like this, you know the cluckster in chief is in trouble...


Moyer, of course has it right: Bush and his supporters really have no regard for the truth- they are classic bullshitters in the parlance of the term below.

(Atrios)


 
  Who would Jesus assasinate?



OK, well, I thought it was interesting when Media Matters posted this bit about Pat Robertson being bloodthirsty and wanting Hugo Chavez assasinated, (HT: Atrios), but I'm actually kind of surprised that the NY Times picked it up.

Chavez has emerged as one of the most outspoken critics of President Bush, accusing the United States of conspiring to topple his government and possibly backing plots to assassinate him. U.S. officials have called the accusations ridiculous.


Although those US officials have been at a loss to explain the presence of certain US embassy personnel near and around the coup leader.

In addition, the Times neglected to report that Robertson basically left out some salient facts: Chavez is dictatorial and corrupt, but has also garnered very broad support by turning petrodollars into social programs, boosting health and literacy of Venezuelans. It's the latter thing that really pisses off the conservatives; after all, they have no problem with dictatorial and corrupt Saudis, Pakistanis, Iraqis, and of course, Robertson had no problem with his old friend Mobutu Sese Seko, or Roberto d'Aubisson, the Salvadoran death squad leader who murdered Archbishop Oscar Romero.

That dang libreral media...always leaving out context.

 
Monday, August 22, 2005
  Joe Tierney: I'm dazzled by his erudition...



Actually, not.

Peter Maas wrote a pretty good overview of the peak oil situation in last Sunday's Times magazine.

Matthew Simmons, a head of a Houston investment bank specializing in the energy industry and author of "Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy" was a main source for the book...

So what does Joe Tierney do? Well...

I didn't try to argue with [Simmons] about Saudi Arabia, because I know next to nothing about oil production there or anywhere else. I'm just following the advice of a mentor and friend, the economist Julian Simon: if you find anyone willing to bet that natural resource prices are going up, take him for all you can.

Julian took up gambling during the last end-of-oil crisis, in 1980, when experts were predicting a new age of scarcity as the planet's resources were depleted by the growing population. Julian had debunked these fears in "The Ultimate Resource," the bible of Cornucopian economics, which showed how human ingenuity had kept driving down the price of energy and other natural resources for centuries.

He offered to bet the pessimists that oil or any other resource they chose would be cheaper, in real terms, at any date they picked in the future. The ecologist Paul Ehrlich, author of "The Population Bomb" and "The End of Affluence," took up his offer and chose copper, tin and three other metals worth $1,000 in 1980.


Hey Joe, I got a bet for you! I'll bet you $5,000 that at some point the Anasazi ran out of water and became extinct...I'll bet you another $5,000 that climate changes in the Asian steppes brought about forced migrations due to lack of grazing land that brought about the fall of the Roman Empire.

I mean, if you're going to take it as a sure thing that natural resource prices can't go up to the point of squeezing civilization, then I would assume that when I trot out instances of environmental over-extension that he'd be perfectly willing to pay up.




 
  The New Yorker this week: the article on Hewitt and the article by Gladwell.



Hugh Hewitt's profile in this week's New Yorker by Nicholas Lemann, is a very interesting deconstruction of Hewitt: the article is clearly written with a right-of-center slant; never really calling into question Hewitt's fundamental position on the media, which is, to wit: there can only be opinionated media.

Look, I'll admit that this blog is more opinionated than it would be if it were purely journalistic, but the purpose of this blog, in addition to recording facts and my own state of mind in relation to them is to be a bit propagandistic.

Hewitt seems to think there's nothing but propagandistic journalism.

That, in the definition below, is nothing but bullshit journalism, and it's most often seen from well, folks like Hewitt.

Recording facts as they exist, and attempting to be censorious of one's opinions is indeed a position: it is the position that in taking that orientation one can best arrive at a view of things free from one's prejudices. Hewitt just doesn't care about prejudices.

Also worth reading: the article by Gladwell on health insurance, which pretty much implies one obvious truth: if "moral hazard" principle insurance actually worked, insurance costs in the US would be going down, not up.

Single payer.


 
  Yes, they really do have an army game on the army website - just so prospective Casey Sheehans know what they're getting into?



I thought Randi Rhodes was being hyperbolic, but it turns out she's right.

Evidently, though, Snowden's secret is not part of the game.

Snowden was wounded inside his flak suit. Yossarian ripped open the snaps of Snowden's flak suit and heard himself scream wildly as Snowden's insides slithered down to the floor in a soggy pile and just kept dripping out...Yossarian screamed a second time and squeezed both hands over his eyes...

"I'm cold," Snowden wimpered. "I'm cold."

"There, there," Yossarian mumbled mechanically in a voice too low to be heard. "There, there."

Yossarian was cold, too, and shivering uncontrollably. He felt goose pimples clacking all over him as he gazed down despondently at the grim secret Snowden had spilled all over the messy floor. It was easy to read the message in his entrails. Man was matter, that was Snowden's secret. Drop him out a window and he'll fall. Set fire to him and he'll burn. Bury him and he'll rot, like other kinds of garbage. The spirit gone, man is garbage. That was Snowden's secret. Ripeness was all.

"I'm cold," Snowden said. "I'm cold."

"There, there," said Yossarian. "There, there." He pulled the rip cord of Snowden's parachute and covered his body with the white nylon sheets.

"I'm cold."

"There, there."





 
  Conservative Terrorist Rudolph sentenced.



But this is is the important point:

John Hawthorne, whose wife, Alice, had died in the attack on Olympics, addressed Mr. Rudolph during the sentencing to describe him as Napoleonic - "little person, big bomb."

"You're still a small man," he said. "You show defiance and arrogance, but only to hide your fear of the dismal future in store for you." Mr. Hawthorne played a video tribute to his wife and noted that today would have been their 18th wedding anniversary.

Fallon Stubbs, Alice Hawthorne's 23-year-old daughter, offered Mr. Randolph forgiveness. "Because of you, I have become a tolerant person," said Ms. Stubbs, who was also injured in the bombing. "Not for you, but for me, I forgive you, I look at you, I love you.

"And if I cry," she added, "it's not for me. It's not for my mother. It's not for my father. It's for you."

At that point, Mr. Rudolph appeared to break eye contact, according to The Associated Press.





It's good that -unlike Paul Hill- Rudolph will have the rest of his life to contemplate the horrors he's inflicted on others.

And thankfully the extremistrs won't make a martyr out of the timid Rudolph like they did with Paul Hill.


 
  A Challenge to right-wing readers of this blog...



With Bush's stunningly low approval ratings (he's now offically less popular than Nixon was in the summer of 73) it's reasonable for the Democrats to start thinking big- like taking back both the House and the Senate in 06.

Now, here's how it will go down: for the rest of 05, there will be nothing straying from the current game plan, which would be to basically try to have at least the Senate Dems on message, with the exception of an occaisonal turncoat like Liberman.

So, for example, there's no reason to filibuster Roberts- despite the fact that he appears to be an extremist, unless of course something big happens on that front - like, say, he could be filibustered.

The big enchilada, though, is 06.

There ought to be a unifying message- a Democratic "Contract for Americans."

Look, righties, it's unlikely you'll get what you want on abortion and gay rights out of the Dems, although on abortion, it's likely that the Dems could pass measures to actually minimize the number of out of wedlock births, for example.

But what would you want from them?

If you'll never vote for a Democrat unless they're against abortion and gay rights, then I suspect this doesn't matter. But then, as I implied below, you're not likely a "values" voter.

So what would change your vote? What should the Dems try to do to fix things?

Naturally they won't become Republicans.

I'd say myself they should offer up



There are actually a number of wedge issue laws that can be enacted.

So what would you like to see ?


Update: Digby's is indeed right here: our first priority will be to remove Republicans from power, and we will not be taking any prisoners in doing so.


It is conventional wisdom that one of the reasons Hackett did as well as he did was because of his sincere righteous indignation about the leadership of this country and I think it's at least partially true. That translates to strength and authenticity to people who hear long-winded multi-year withdrawal scenarios and immediately switch the channel --- which are a majority of voters. I think the guy is tremendously charismatic whose status as an Iraq war veteran made him somewhat unique, but there is little doubt in my mind that he was able to win over some people, probably the Ross Perot type independents, who respect candor and authenticity. In this day of over-handled candidates it is a very heady breath of fresh air to see a Democrat appear unafraid and unintimidated...

That, I think, is the real question here. Will our "shrillness" help or hurt the party? I think the netroots believes it's time to try a message that has a little more heat than lukewarm water. The establishment, still smarting from their seminal loss in 1972, is scared to death of anything that resembles real passion. Far more than a serious division in the party over specific policy, that, I think is the real fault line. What kind of politics --- not policies --- do the Democrats think will win?




So the policies I'd advocate would be ones that people would agree with but would marginalize the Republicans: the right of privacy, I think is number one on the list for this.



 
  Maybe, just maybe Christians are starting to realize



what Chuck Gutenson's saying here.

I would like to think that most Christians, even most conservative Christians, aren't going to counteance rampant immorality from someone that says words against abortion and gay people.

But I think Bush is unpopular because gas prices are going through the roof.


 
  Working to see that your kids don't get dead is caring for your kids.




Mossback's making his kids less safe OTOH
, unlike Cindy Sheehan.



 
  I've been picked up by "Unpartisan.com"



This is a pretty cool site. It's kind of an automated blog that automatically picks up feeds from blogs left an right about issues.


 
  It's official: George W. Bush is an unpopular president.




George W. Bush's approval ratings drop
: Among Americans registered to vote, 38% approve of the way Bush is handling his job as president and 56% disapprove, and 36% approve of the way Bush is handling the economy and 60% disapprove.


(HT: Atrios.)


 
  Jujitsu and political debate...



Using the techniques of Jujitsu or Aikido (working with your opponent's force to defeat him) is often a very good way to illustrate the absurdity of one's position; a good example is this riposte in this Think Progress post on Gorelick:

OMG–poor President Bush–so surrounded by partisan Bush-haters that he can’t even appoint a bipartisan commission without it instantly becoming the “partisan anti-Bush commission”

So shocking that those partisan liberals would exploit the facts to attack our beloved president . . .



 
  Think Progress : Great blog



The debunking of Jamie Gorelick nonsense, especially is good (e.g. here).


 
  "Strict Constructionists" and Stolen Elections: Let's bring Freedom to America first.



Read the September issue of Harper's to see how completely absurd the concept of "strict constructionism" is. (Sorry, no link yet.)

Some key points:


Read the article.

Also, get the August issue and read "None Dare Call it Stolen." (Nice summary here. And here too.)

As Krugman reminds us of the 2000 election problems, and the unconscionable political interference by the largely Republican court, I would say the bigger priorities facing the US are bringing liberty and justice here.

Nobody can seriously, with a straight face say we're "liberating" Iraq when we're not liberated at home.



 
  What to do about Iraq?



We are not really bringing liberty to Iraq. (Also see here for more.) That's a given by now.

In fact, the state of liberty at home in the US is in deep trouble.

We are still dependent on oil.

The best thing that can be done about Iraq is to get an exit strategy soon. There is no way we can achieve an objective of liberty there, or perhaps even strategic control of the oil there without engaging in genocide.

It's that simple.

We should try to put the problem in the hands of all interested powers - like the UN. We should admit we screwed up and ask the world for help.

That's a good start.

Then we can implement a real strategy to get the world economy off imported oil, especially from the middle east.


 
Sunday, August 21, 2005
  Bullshit!



Link

If “bullshit,” as opposed to “bull,” is a distinctively modern linguistic innovation, that could have something to do with other distinctively modern things, like advertising, public relations, political propaganda, and schools of education. “One of the most salient features of our culture is that there is so much bullshit,” Harry G. Frankfurt, a distinguished moral philosopher who is professor emeritus at Princeton, says. The ubiquity of bullshit, he notes, is something that we have come to take for granted. Most of us are pretty confident of our ability to detect it, so we may not regard it as being all that harmful. We tend to take a more benign view of someone caught bullshitting than of someone caught lying. (“Never tell a lie when you can bullshit your way through,” a father counsels his son in an Eric Ambler novel.) All of this worries Frankfurt. We cannot really know the effect that bullshit has on us, he thinks, until we have a clearer understanding of what it is. That is why we need a theory of bullshit.

Frankfurt's own effort along these lines was contained in a paper that he presented two decades ago at a faculty seminar at Yale. Later, that paper appeared in a journal, and then in a collection of Frankfurt's writings; all the while, photocopies of it passed from fan to fan. Earlier this year, it was published as “On Bullshit” (Princeton; $9.95), a tiny book of sixty-seven spaciously printed pages that has gone on to become an improbable best-seller...

“So far as I am aware,” Frankfurt dryly observes, “very little work has been done on this subject.” He did find an earlier philosopher's attempt to analyze a similar concept under a more genteel name: humbug. Humbug, that philosopher decided, was a pretentious bit of misrepresentation that fell short of lying. (A politician talking about the importance of his religious faith comes to mind.) Frankfurt was not entirely happy with this definition. The difference between lies and bullshit, it seemed to him, was more than a matter of degree. To push the analysis in a new direction, he considers a rather peculiar anecdote about the philosopher Ludwig Wittgenstein. It was the nineteen-thirties, and Wittgenstein had gone to the hospital to visit a friend whose tonsils had just been taken out. She croaked to Wittgenstein, “I feel just like a dog that has been run over.” Wittgenstein (the friend recalled) was disgusted to hear her say this. “You don't know what a dog that has been run over feels like,” he snapped. Of course, Wittgenstein might simply have been joking. But Frankfurt suspects that his severity was real, not feigned. This was, after all, a man who devoted his life to combatting what he considered to be pernicious forms of nonsense. What Wittgenstein found offensive in his friend's simile, Frankfurt guesses, was its mindlessness: “Her fault is not that she fails to get things right, but that she is not even trying.”

The essence of bullshit, Frankfurt decides, is that it is produced without any concern for the truth. Bullshit needn't be false: “The bullshitter is faking things. But this does not mean that he necessarily gets them wrong.” The bullshitter's fakery consists not in misrepresenting a state of affairs but in concealing his own indifference to the truth of what he says. The liar, by contrast, is concerned with the truth, in a perverse sort of fashion: he wants to lead us away from it. As Frankfurt sees it, the liar and the truthteller are playing on opposite sides of the same game, a game defined by the authority of truth. The bullshitter opts out of this game altogether. Unlike the liar and the truthteller, he is not guided in what he says by his beliefs about the way things are. And that, Frankfurt says, is what makes bullshit so dangerous: it unfits a person for telling the truth.



 
  There goes that liberal media again...



Link


August 21,2005 | SALT LAKE CITY -- A Utah television station is refusing to air an anti-war ad featuring Cindy Sheehan, whose son's death in Iraq prompted a vigil outside President Bush's Texas ranch.

The ad began airing on other area stations Saturday, two days before Bush was scheduled to speak in Salt Lake City to the national convention of the Veterans of Foreign Wars.

However, a national sales representative for KTVX, a local ABC affiliate, rejected the ad in an e-mail to media buyers, writing that it was an "inappropriate commercial advertisement for Salt Lake City."..

In a statement Saturday evening explaining its decision, KTVX said that after viewing the ad, local managers found the content "could very well be offensive to our community in Utah, which has contributed more than its fair share of fighting soldiers and suffered significant loss of life in this Iraq war."

Station General Manager David D'Antuono said the decision was not influenced by the station's owner, Clear Channel Communications Inc.

Celeste Zappala, who with Sheehan co-founded Gold Star Families for Peace, said she was puzzled by the decision.

"What stunned me was that it was inappropriate to hear this message," she said. "How is it that Salt Lake City should hear no questions about the war?"



This is the pitiful state of our liberties in the Bush era.

 
Saturday, August 20, 2005
  Operation Yellow Elephant



What's not to like?
 
  More dishonesty from Bush...



Via Americablog
, but I have a different take on this PR thing than Avarosis:


CRAWFORD, Texas (AP) -- With anti-war protesters continuing their vigil outside President Bush's ranch, the commander in chief began a five-day push Saturday to tell Americans why he thinks U.S. troops must continue the fight in Iraq...

"Our troops know that they're fighting in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere to protect their fellow Americans from a savage enemy," the president said in the recorded broadcast.

"They know that if we do not confront these evil men abroad, we will have to face them one day in our own cities and streets, and they know that the safety and security of every American is at stake in this war, and they know we will prevail."...

As he has before when he has been challenged, Bush invoked the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in his radio address.

"On that day, we learned that vast oceans and friendly neighbors no longer protect us from those who wish to harm our people," he said. "And since that day, we have taken the fight to the enemy."


Let's take the last bit first:

On that day, we learned that vast oceans and friendly neighbors no longer protect us from those who wish to harm our people.



The United States is the most heavily armed nation on earth. It spends more for defense than any other nation. Its navy is several times the size of its next nearest competitor.

The fact is we haven't relied on "vast oceans and friendly neighbors" to "protect us" since, I dunno, the Spanish American war.

Bush either really is that ignorant, or really is dishonest. I don't think Bush is ignorant.

And of course, Iraq had nothing to do with Sept. 11.

"They know that if we do not confront these evil men abroad, we will have to face them one day in our own cities and streets, and they know that the safety and security of every American is at stake in this war, and they know we will prevail."


As London showed, stirring up a hornet's nest somewhere else won't prevent you from getting stung at home.


Our troops know that they're fighting in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere to protect their fellow Americans from a savage enemy.


All I can think of in response to this is:



And so, I suspect, does the rest of the world.


 
Friday, August 19, 2005
  What's wrong with this picture?



I always thought the concept of a personal trainer was a bit too self indulgent except for possibly professional tennis players who generally are young enough to require the discipline. But this is too much:

Mr. Kupris, 23, is one of the most sought-after personal trainers in New York City. This may be in part because he is friendly and attentive, and in part because of his self-taught expertise in body toning. But what really distinguishes Mr. Kupris is his willingness to go beyond the trainer's traditional job description. He meets clients at home or wherever they want to work out. For $125 an hour he'll become more like a brother, helping them with many other aspects of their lives. Part chef, part activity director, part children's camp counselor, he represents a new approach to personal training: the ultimate full-service fitness consultant.

Personal trainers who meet their clients in a gym for a 45- to 60-minute workout have become relatively commonplace. Some 6.2 million Americans hired one in 2004, an increase of more than 2 million over five years, according to a survey conducted by the International Health, Racquet & Sportsclub Association.

Now some clients are looking for more than just workouts. They want someone who becomes part of their life: who motivates them to try new activities, coaches them about what to eat and provides any other hand holding they need to get strong and stay that way. Graham Melstrand, the director of educational services for the American Council on Exercise, said in an e-mail message that this new demand has created "an opportunity for the well-qualified fitness professional to move beyond the traditional boundaries of fitness programming in the health club setting."

Trying unfamiliar activities, many trainers say, is an important part of the new training strategy.








 
  Poor Leonard Cohen



This shouldn't happen to any 70 year old.

You gotta watch your money no matter what...

Also: check out this bit on his day to day life.

Cohen's lifestyle may not be lavish, but he's still got a great attitude and a good life.




 
  Worth reading today:



Armando's post in Kos, and Paul Krugman.
 
Wednesday, August 17, 2005
  Here it comes: the oil shock....



Link

Forecasters still expect economic growth to remain healthy for the rest of the year, as companies invest in new factories and the housing boom continues. But the high cost of oil already appears to be curbing growth, translating into unusually modest gains in employment and pay.

If history is any guide, higher prices will hurt consumption, curb the nation's output and shift spending patterns. The risks of a domino effect on the economy are real, economists say.

"We can't lose sight of the fact that energy restricts growth," said Anthony Chan, a senior economist at J. P. Morgan Asset Management. "It is doing so."

So far, the economy has showed much more resilience in the face of higher energy costs than most analysts had anticipated. Although prices began rising in early 2002, consumers have kept shopping, companies have expanded and inflation has remained under control. At times, it seemed a new economic era had dawned.

Without question, economists say, rising oil prices cause less economic pain than they once did. It takes half as much energy to produce $1 of gross domestic product today, adjusted for inflation, than it did 30 years ago. Even at today's prices, oil is cheaper than it was in the early 1980's, once adjusted for inflation.

The falling costs of other goods, thanks in large part to global competition, have also helped cushion the blow from higher energy costs. While energy prices rose 3.8 percent from June to July, the price of all other goods inched up only 0.2 percent, the Labor Department said yesterday.

"There seems to be a greater tolerance in the economy in terms of what can be withstood," said Doug Leggate, an energy analyst with Citigroup in New York.

But a spike in oil prices still hurts, economists say, even if the pain does not come immediately. In the past, the full effect was not felt until a year, or even two years, after prices began rising. Both of the last two recessions - in 1990-91 and in 2001 - began more than a year after energy prices started a sharp climb.

"It is way too soon to be sanguine," said Andrew J. Oswald, an economist at the University of Warwick in England, who has written about oil. "The influence of a petroleum shock runs deep and runs slow. My own view is that we will find oil shocks still hurt, and hurt fundamentally."

It was only 13 months ago that the price of a barrel of crude settled above $40. Oil, which closed yesterday at $66.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, is not likely to become much cheaper anytime soon, analysts say. Nor are natural gas prices, which have gained 73 percent this year. This means that winter heating bills for American households are set to soar.




 
Tuesday, August 16, 2005
  Do people really want to be like they are on their blogs?


I think it's the Cindy Sheehan thing that's making the righties jump the shark- yes- jump right over that sucker, for me.


Take Michelle Malkin (e.g., here and here); please.

I'm sure Mr. Maglagang takes her everywhere, but she always finds her way back home.

Folks such as Malkin ( she's who has written things that reasonable people can call racist) have a problem with Cindy Sheehan.

Wow.

Malkin has a problem with Michael Moore, too, evidently.

Do you want to be like Michelle Malkin? Do you want to trash the name of someone who gave far more than Malkin can possibly conceive for Bush's folly?

Malkin has a lesson for us: we should practice right speech.

Similarly, Joe Carter, through his quotes on "Justice" "Sunday" II (if there were justice it would involve a some prosecutorial inquiries into Tom DeLay) quotes one Jerry Sutton, who teaches the same lesson. Sutton, to my way of thinking, is clearly slandering Michael Schiavo here, and one would hope that Schiavo would actually sue him. No doubt Schiavo has sustained damages for this type of behavior, and it's time that "Dr." Sutton learn what right speech is all about.


 
Monday, August 15, 2005
  As they say, "Oyyyy!"



Link...

Business people who've never even thought of Buddhism also are finding themselves booked for Zen retreats with colleagues. Seminars with titles like Executive Zen, Zen at Work and Zen and Business offer businesses a way to help their employees handle stress and excel.

"When we take a moment out of an overfilled day and incorporate a very basic Zen practice, for instance, the practice of mindfulness, it's amazing how your day can turn around," said Monique Muhlenkamp, publicity manager for California's New World Library. In her work, she promotes such books as Marc Lesser's "Z.B.A.: Zen of Business Administration: How Zen Practice Can Transform Your Work and Your Life" ($14.95 paperback, 256 pages).

"For many people, it's no longer just about a job; they want and need more. Applying Zen to the day-to-day helps on many levels."



(Emphasis mine.)

And sure enough...

Q. What can one gain from a continuing meditation practice?

A. Clearly someone who is typing while thinking about the ball game will not perform in the same league as when you are attentive to the job at hand. So maybe you will get a raise, a promotion, satisfaction of a job well done, a more successful business.


Sometimes I understand Hakuin pretty well...






 
  You can't help but psychologize this...



Back from my little vacation (camping at Lake Chelan, with my son, who loved it), I noticed this bit from Kos quoting George W. Bush from this article:

"But whether it be here or in Washington or anywhere else, there's somebody who has got something to say to the president, that's part of the job," Bush said on the ranch. "And I think it's important for me to be thoughtful and sensitive to those who have got something to say."

"But," he added, "I think it's also important for me to go on with my life, to keep a balanced life."...

"I think the people want the president to be in a position to make good, crisp decisions and to stay healthy," he said when asked about bike riding while a grieving mom wanted to speak with him. "And part of my being is to be outside exercising."



I'm in pretty good shape but I don't exercise 2 hours every day. The fact that he's avoiding a grieving mother - as Kos says - he fears facing the consequences of his actions - illustratges his fear of accountability- even Bush knows, deep down, that he's screwed up royally. Let's face it: every single - every single- justification that's been made for this war has been founded on a lie. And the situation there is worse for our being there, not better.

It's why the right wing slime machine's been manufacturing outrage against Sheehan. They want to deny the consequences of their actions at all costs: it is sociopathy as foreign policy.

As Cindy Sheehan herself says:

George Bush took a 2 hour bike ride on Saturday, and when he got back, he was asked how he could go for a two hour bike ride when he doesn't have time to meet with me, and he said: "I have to go on with my life." (Austin Statesman, August 14) WHAT!!!!!????? He has to get on with his life!!! I am so offended by that statement. Every person, war fan, or not, who has had a child killed in this mistake of an occupation should be highly offended by that remark. Who does he think he is? I wish I could EVER be able to get on with my life. Getting on with my life means a life without my dear, sweet boy. Getting on with my life means learning to live with a pain that is so intense that sometimes I feel like throwing up, or screaming until I pass out from sorrow. I wish a little bike ride could help me get on with my life.

need to focus on the positive, though, and there is so much. I had so many amazing things happen today. I couldn't walk through Camp Casey or the Crawford Peace House today without hugging people and getting my picture taken. Now I know how Mickey Mouse feels at Disneyland. I had a soldier from Ft. Hood come out today and he brought me a small stone with a First Cavalry insignia painted on it and the pictures of three of his beautiful buddies who were murdered there by George's reckless policies. It was such an incredible moment for me when he said: "Keep on doing what you are doing. We are so proud of you. Casey would be so proud of you."


This is the other thing that Bush - and the right wing slime machine fears: a sincere response to the insanity - sincerity to the point of spirituality.

Bush cannot possibly "get on with his life" without truly "meeting" the Cindy Sheehans. Cindy Sheehan need not meet with Bush to know she has already accomplished something.

Cindy Sheehan is only asking Bush to be what he said he would be way back in January of 2001: to be president of all the people.






 
Saturday, August 13, 2005
  Off for vacation....

Don't expect anything profound till next week...

Update:

Washington State Gas Prices... and Portland Area Gas Prices...

shop wisely...


 
  Sheehan: not being angry anymore...



Michael Moore highlights Cindy Sheehan and links to Gold Star Families for Peace.

Michael Moore may get things wrong from time to time, but he's essentially right, and the right is essentially wrong about most of the things he targets.

But I think what really gets the right is that, unlike Michelle Malkin, he's actually entertaining without being - well, hateful and angry.

And that seems to be the theme of Cindy Sheehan's post today at the Huffington Post.

It's good that folks like Sheehan are transcending anger, because although anger can provide the energy to affect change, it is a dangerous thing when uncoralled.

But like Sheehan anger can be transformed into something better.

And the right is clearly unsettled with Sheehan, because she's the real deal. She's someone who sacrificed her child - the righties I see smearing her have never really understood sacrifice, have never understood the cost of freedom has to be paid by acting freely, and most importantly, have never understood that anger and resentment aren't meant to be fed with more anger and resentment, but can only be sated by compassionate action.

She's not simply aping MLK or Gandhi here in calling Bush and the righties to accountability- and even if she was, the call to accountability would still be sincere, and would still demand a response.

And responsibility is all she's asking. It's all anyone ought to ask of those who are employed by us, such as Bush.






 
Friday, August 12, 2005
  Even better investment advice...



Why the little guy can't win and the best he can do...

WHEN I started out on this new book," David F. Swensen was saying the other day, "I thought I was going to take what we do at Yale and make it accessible to the individual investor." Oh, lucky day! Mr. Swensen, the chief investment officer of the Yale endowment - and to my mind, the best manager of institutional money in the United States - was going to show you and me how to invest the way he does.

To his surprise, however, the book Mr. Swensen eventually wrote, "Unconventional Success: A Fundamental Approach to Personal Investment," published this last Tuesday, turned out to be the opposite of what he intended. Its title notwithstanding, it doesn't show the little guy how to invest like Yale. Instead, it shows why the little guy will never be able to invest the way Yale does.

For all the "democratization" that has taken place in the world of personal investing the deck is still stacked against the individual. That was Mr. Swensen's fundamental discovery. And his willingness to change course and turn "Unconventional Success" into a polemic aimed primarily at mutual fund companies, but also at other Wall Street types who fleece the little guy, is to his everlasting credit...

His new book has given Mr. Swensen a greater appreciation of the enormous advantages he has as an institutional money manager, starting with the obvious fact that he has a staff that spends full-time researching investment possibilities. Thus, he takes it as a given that individuals shouldn't pick stocks themselves. "I see every day how competitive the markets are, and how tough. So the idea that you can do this yourself, that's out the window."

What is it about mutual funds Mr. Swensen finds offensive? Just about everything. He hates the way the loads and all the hidden fees mean that the investor is always behind the eight ball. (When I asked him about hedge fund fees, which are much higher, Mr. Swensen replied: "I don't mind paying a lot for actual performance. Besides, when we negotiate fees, it's sophisticated investor versus fund manager. It's a fair fight.")...

So does Mr. Swensen offer any hope at all? Some. He thinks we'd all be better off sticking with index funds, instead of trying to beat the market. He thinks we should get our index funds from Vanguard, with its rock-bottom fees. (As a not-for-profit company, Vanguard also doesn't have the central conflict of interest.) We should have a diversified portfolio of index funds, for the same reason Yale does. We should be disciplined in our approach, especially in rebalancing our portfolio to stick to our diversification targets. Of course, this invariably means paring back on winners and increasing our investment in laggards.




 
  The original words to the tune for "Johnny Comes Marching Home."



The song was orignally called "Johnny I Hardly Knew Ye; this is actually a song that is very evocative of the horrors of war.

While goin' the road to sweet Athy, hurroo, hurroo
While goin' the road to sweet Athy, hurroo, hurroo
While goin' the road to sweet Athy
A stick in me hand and a drop in me eye
A doleful damsel I heard cry,
Johnny I hardly knew ye.

With your drums and guns and drums and guns, hurroo, hurroo
With your drums and guns and drums and guns, hurroo, hurroo
With your drums and guns and drums and guns
The enemy nearly slew ye
Oh my darling dear, Ye look so queer
Johnny I hardly knew ye.

Where are your eyes that were so mild, hurroo, hurroo
Where are your eyes that were so mild, hurroo, hurroo
Where are your eyes that were so mild
When my heart you so beguiled
Why did ye run from me and the child
Oh Johnny, I hardly knew ye.

Where are your legs that used to run, hurroo, hurroo
Where are your legs that used to run, hurroo, hurroo
Where are your legs that used to run
When you went for to carry a gun
Indeed your dancing days are done
Oh Johnny, I hardly knew ye.

I'm happy for to see ye home, hurroo, hurroo
I'm happy for to see ye home, hurroo, hurroo
I'm happy for to see ye home
All from the island of Sulloon
So low in flesh, so high in bone
Oh Johnny I hardly knew ye.

Ye haven't an arm, ye haven't a leg, hurroo, hurroo
Ye haven't an arm, ye haven't a leg, hurroo, hurroo
Ye haven't an arm, ye haven't a leg
Ye're an armless, boneless, chickenless egg
Ye'll have to put with a bowl out to beg
Oh Johnny I hardly knew ye.

They're rolling out the guns again, hurroo, hurroo
They're rolling out the guns again, hurroo, hurroo
They're rolling out the guns again
But they never will take our sons again
No they never will take our sons again
Johnny I'm swearing to ye.



Via Brad de Long.

I didn't know the orignal words; but now I do know another piece of war propaganda trivia...


 
  Economics blogs now driving investment trends...



So says the WSJ:

While many investors continue to take their cues from traditional outlets, the real news junkies -- including those who aim to get a trading idea before they hear about it from their broker -- have bookmarked the blogs, or Web logs. Even Wall Street itself is paying heed.

"It's all about the 'memes,' " says Stan Jonas, head of interest rate strategy at Fimat USA in New York, employing a word that describes ideas that spread quickly by word of mouth -- or Web. "Those guys say it and about a week or two later, the guys on Wall Street pick it up."


via The Big Picture...

The econ blogs mentioned:

(1) http://www.econbrowser.com
(2) http://macroblog.typepad.com
(3) http://voxbaby.blogspot.com
(4) http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/movable_type
(5) http://bigpicture.typepad.com
(6) http://www.truthlaidbear.com
(7) http://Dailykos.com
(8) http://economistsview.typepad.com
(9) http://www.stern.nyu.edu/globalmacro

It probably bothers some to see Kos here (I don't have access to the original article, and don't know why "Truth Laid Bear" is there for the life of me), but good economic insight is often posted by Kos diarists.

It's made me money.

I'd also add seeking alpha, and especially his economics blog resource pages.

Notice how fair and balanced I am??? I've even linked to a page that links to Becker and Posner's blog...



Want great investing advice? If you're looking to see what makes money, don't have ideological blinders on, but do understand that others will act on behalf of ideology. It's no crime to make a wise investment that supports your own ideology though.



 
  "Advice?" Here's better advice:



Andrew Pryor (publisher of Sound Mind Investing, "America's best-selling financial newsletter written from a biblical perspective") guest blogs at Evangelical Outpost on, well, investing, ostensibly, but it looks more like a plug for his site when you do the click-throughs.

What is there, and posted, looks more like standard bromides:

The right investing decision is one that is prudent under the circumstances. Does it pass the "common sense" test? How much of your investing capital can you afford to lose and still have a realistic chance of meeting your financial goals? The investments that offer higher potential returns also carry greater risks of loss. The right portfolio for you is not always the one with the most profit potential.

For example, it's usually best not to have a majority of your investments in a single asset or security. For that reason, people who have large holdings of stock in the company they work for often sell some of it in order to diversify. If the stock doubles after they sell it, does that mean they did the "wrong" thing? No, they did the right thing. After all, the stock could have fallen dramatically as well as risen (ask the former employees of Enron). What would a large loss have done to their retirement planning? The right investment step is the one that protects you in the event of life's occasional worst-case scenarios. Generally, this moves you in the direction of increased diversification.


So, while I'm all in favor of diversification, I also think it's suicidal to be brain dead for the "long term."

So here's my observations and advice for diversification:




What does that mean for diversification?
For the "near term," (about the next 6 months to a year):



At least in the past year (longer, if I checked) this has returned well over the return on the DOW, the return on the S&P 500, etc.


 
  武道 (ぶどう) , or, why the "101st Keyboarders" are clueless:



Link 1



故曰:知彼知己,百戰不殆;不知彼而知己,一勝一負;不知彼,不知己,每戰必敗

One hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the most skillful. Seizing the enemy without fighting is the most skillful.


It is better to save your army than to go down fighting...







Link 2


The easy way is always mined.

Never draw fire; it irritates everyone around you.

The enemy invariably attacks on two occasions:
when they're ready.
when you're not




And finally, a quote from Cindy Sheehan (via Kos):

The President says he feels compassion for me, but the best way to show that compassion is by meeting with me and the other mothers and families who are here. Our sons made the ultimate sacrifice and we want answers. All we're asking is that he sacrifice an hour out of his five-week vacation to talk to us, before the next mother loses her son in Iraq. He says he is spreading peace. How can you spread peace by killing people?


That is the main point: the big principle of the art of war, West or East, is to engage in war only as a way of ending strife and conflict.

Bush - and his supporters on the right- don't have specifics about how they are engaging this thing in order to end it. In fact, it's only expanding, which should call to mind the first principle of holes- when you're in one, stop digging.


 
Thursday, August 11, 2005
  The oil we eat



It's the name of another article from Harper's

The Dust Bowl was no accident of nature. A functioning grassland prairie produces more biomass each year than does even the most technologically advanced wheat field. The problem is, it’s mostly a form of grass and grass roots that humans can’t eat. So we replace the prairie with our own preferred grass, wheat. Never mind that we feed most of our grain to livestock, and that livestock is perfectly content to eat native grass. And never mind that there likely were more bison produced naturally on the Great Plains before farming than all of beef farming raises in the same area today. Our ancestors found it preferable to pluck the energy from the ground and when it ran out move on.

Today we do the same, only now when the vault is empty we fill it again with new energy in the form of oil-rich fertilizers. Oil is annual primary productivity stored as hydrocarbons, a trust fund of sorts, built up over many thousands of years. On average, it takes 5.5 gallons of fossil energy to restore a year’s worth of lost fertility to an acre of eroded land—in 1997 we burned through more than 400 years’ worth of ancient fossilized productivity, most of it from someplace else. Even as the earth beneath Iowa shrinks, it is being globalized...

The common assumption these days is that we muster our weapons to secure oil, not food. There’s a little joke in this. Ever since we ran out of arable land, food is oil. Every single calorie we eat is backed by at least a calorie of oil, more like ten. In 1940 the average farm in the United States produced 2.3 calories of food energy for every calorie of fossil energy it used. By 1974 (the last year in which anyone looked closely at this issue), that ratio was 1:1. And this understates the problem, because at the same time that there is more oil in our food there is less oil in our oil. A couple of generations ago we spent a lot less energy drilling, pumping, and distributing than we do now. In the 1940s we got about 100 barrels of oil back for every barrel of oil we spent getting it. Today each barrel invested in the process returns only ten, a calculation that no doubt fails to include the fuel burned by the Hummers and Blackhawks we use to maintain access to the oil in Iraq.

David Pimentel, an expert on food and energy at Cornell University, has estimated that if all of the world ate the way the United States eats, humanity would exhaust all known global fossil-fuel reserves in just over seven years. Pimentel has his detractors. Some have accused him of being off on other calculations by as much as 30 percent. Fine. Make it ten years.


And sure enough, there go food prices:

High gas prices may not only pinch your wallet at the pump but also at the supermarket. Some stores and even restaurants may have to charge more to cover their costs.

Talk about sticker shock. Hal Spradlin couldn't believe pump prices when he filled up his delivery truck Tuesday morning. Usually $65 gets him close to a full tank. But Tuesday? "Three-quarters of a tank," Spradlin said. And by week's end, Hal will nearly pay three times as much. "It's an average of $180 a week to fill this thing up. Twenty cents a gallon makes a big difference," said Spradlin.

If you think what Hal pays at the pump doesn't affect you, you're wrong. Hal delivers produce for Sam Okun, a food wholesale business in downtown Toledo. Even though the company does not charge extra for gas, the increase cost is built in to the price of some products. "Lettuce that cost us $8 before, we were getting $10 now. We are [selling it for] $10.50.


And that's not all the other areas where petroleum impacts the food chain.

Oh boy...we're in trouble...


 
  Able Danger? You're kidding...



Righties are touting the "Able Danger" story as proof that See! 9/11 was Clinton's Fault!


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Sept. 11 commission knew military intelligence officials had identified lead hijacker Mohamed Atta as a member of al-Qaida who might be part of U.S.-based terror cell more than a year before the terror attacks but decided not to include that in its final report, a spokesman acknowledged Thursday.

Al Felzenberg, who had been the commission's chief spokesman, said Tuesday the panel was unaware of intelligence specifically naming Atta. But he said subsequent information provided Wednesday confirmed that the commission had been aware of the intelligence.

It did not make it into the final report because the information was not consistent with what the commission knew about Atta's whereabouts before the attacks, Felzenberg said. The commission has gone out of existence, although a follow-up organization called the 9/11 Public Discourse Project continues to follow closely the Bush administration's progress in implementing their recommendations.

...According to [ Rep. Curt Weldon, vice chairman of the House Armed Services and Homeland Security committees] a classified military intelligence unit called ''Able Danger'' identified Atta and three other hijackers in 1999 as potential members of a terrorist cell in Brooklyn, N.Y. Weldon said Pentagon lawyers rejected the unit's recommendation that the information be turned over to the FBI in 2000.

According to Pentagon documents, the information was not shared because of concerns about pursuing information on ''U.S. persons,'' a legal term that includes U.S. citizens as well as foreigners legally admitted to the country.

Felzenberg said an unidentified person working with Weldon came forward Wednesday and described a meeting 10 days before the panel's report was issued last July. During it, a military official urged commission staffers to include a reference to the intelligence on Atta in the final report.

Felzenberg said checks were made and the details of the July 12, 2004, meeting were confirmed. Previous to that, Felzenberg said it was believed commission staffers knew about Able Danger from a meeting with military officials in Afghanistan during which no mention was made of Atta or the other three hijackers.

Staff members now are searching documents in the National Archives to look for notes from the meeting in Afghanistan and any other possible references to Atta and Able Danger, Felzenberg said.

He sought to minimize the significance of the new information.

''Even if it were valid, it would've joined the lists of dozens of other instances where information was not shared,'' Felzenberg said. ''There was a major problem with intelligence sharing.''


Er, ummm... if you didn't already know it the 9/11 Commission report was a whitewash:

The most momentous subject before the 9/11 Commission was: What did President Bush know about the Al Qaeda threat to the United States, when did he know it, and if he knew little, why so? The Commission reports that on several occasions in the spring and summer of 2001 the President had “asked his briefers whether any of the threats pointed to the United States.” The Commission further reports the President saying that “if his advisers had told him there was a [terrorist] cell in the United States, they would have moved to take care of it.” Facing his questioners in April 2004, the President said he had not been informed that terrorists were in this country.

Conceivably it was at or near the moment when Bush took this position that the members of the Commission who heard him grasped that casting useful light on the relation between official conduct and national unpreparedness would be impossible. The reason? The President’s claim was untrue. It was a lie, and the Commissioners realized they couldn’t allow it to be seen as a lie. Numberless officials had appeared before the whole body of the Commission or before its aides, had been sworn in, and had thereafter provided circumstantial detail about their attempts—beginning with pre-election campaign briefings in September, through November 2000, and continuing straight through the subsequent months—to educate Bush as candidate, then as president-elect, then as commander in chief, about the threat from terrorists on our shores. The news these officials brought was spelled out in pithy papers both short and long; the documentation supplied was in every respect impressive.[2]

Nevertheless the chief executive, seated before the Commission, declared: Nobody told me. And challenging the chief executive as a liar entailed an unthinkable cost—the possible rending of the nation’s social and political fabric.





This stuff isn't going to be forgotten, even if there were snafus in the Clinton era.


 
  Another banner day for the George W. Bush oil bubble...



$66 a barrel, "with a bullet", as they used to say about the Billboard charts.

So what would it take to bring prices down? Short of a global recession that would significantly push demand down, analysts and traders see no end to the exceptional price rally that began nearly two years ago.


But I still think there'll be a Sept 10-11 pullback in prices.



 
  Ties found between al Qaeda and the Iraqi government!!!



Only thing is, it's the Iraqi government the US installed.

Aug. 10, 2005 - A former Washington-area man accused in court papers of being the “American contact” for an Osama bin Laden “front organization” is now believed to be working for the new Iraqi government’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, two U.S. law-enforcement officials and a longtime associate of the man tell NEWSWEEK...

Tariq A. Hamdi, who allegedly delivered a satellite-telephone battery to bin Laden in Afghanistan in 1998, has left the United States and has told associates he is currently employed in the Iraqi Embassy in Ankara, Turkey, said the government officials, who asked not to be identified because of pending legal charges against Hamdi.

Hamdi's precise status with the Iraqi foreign ministry could not be immediately determined. But one of the U.S. law-enforcement officials said that federal prosecutors were concerned enough about Hamdi’s current status that they undertook a legal review with the State Department to determine if it would prevent them from charging him with federal crimes because of diplomatic immunity. But the prosecutors determined that his diplomatic status was “irrelevant” because the crimes they were considering charging him with took place before the current Iraqi government even existed, the official said.

Hamdi, an Iraqi-born American citizen who formerly lived in the Washington suburb of Herndon, Va., and worked for an Islamic think tank, has long been under scrutiny by federal law-enforcement agents in connection with a broader, three-year long probe into a web of Islamic charities with suspected terror links.



Really, Iraq was more important to Bush than going after al Qaeda. Let's stop pretending otherwise.




 
Wednesday, August 10, 2005
  Uh-oh for Bush: There go the NASCAR dads...



Link



MIAMI -- More than 600 truckers gathered in their big rigs Wednesday to protest the rising gas prices in South Florida, NBC 6's Hank Tester reported.

The trucks, which included tractor-trailers, dump trucks and box trucks, gathered at the intersection of Okeechobee Road and the Florida Turnpike in Miami-Dade County.

Traffic in the area was at a standstill as the trucks started a caravan headed toward Miami City Hall.

The trucks traveled 20 miles to present a petition requesting a fuel surcharge break for independently owned trucks.

The truckers claim that the high cost of gas has made it impossible for them to earn a living.

"The airlines are charging passengers. The steam ship lines are charging the shippers. Everyone who's got clout is getting a surcharge," said Ron Carver of the Teamsters Union. "But the truck drivers who have to buy their own fuel are going into bankruptcy because they don't have the clout to demand this. So they're here today asking Congress to pass a mandatory fuel surcharge to keep them afloat."



I guess at that September 11 Country Western concert they'll have to confine the singers to songs about lost love and the savior, as well as mothers, prison, trains, farms, Christmas, and dead dogs.


 
  Two Ways to Remember September 11...



Method Number 1:

WASHINGTON - (KRT) - The Pentagon will hold a massive march and country music concert to mark the fourth anniversary of Sept. 11, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said in an announcement tucked into an Iraq war briefing Tuesday.

"This year the Department of Defense will initiate an America Supports Your Freedom Walk," Rumsfeld said, adding that the march would remind people of "the sacrifices of this generation and of each previous generation."

The march will start at the Pentagon, where nearly 200 people died on Sept. 11, and end at the National Mall with a show by country star Clint Black.

Word of the event startled some observers. "I've never heard of such a thing," said John Pike, who has been a defense analyst in Washington for 25 years and runs GlobalSecurity.org.

The news also reignited debate and anger over linking Sept. 11 with the war in Iraq.

"That piece of it is disturbing since we all know now there was no connection," said Paul Rieckhoff, an Iraq veteran who heads Operation Truth, an anti-administration military booster.

Rieckhoff suggested the event was an ill-conceived publicity stunt. "I think it's clear that their public opinion polls are in the toilet," he said.




Method Number 2:

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ongoing concerns over conflicts in the oil-rich Middle East lifted crude-oil futures to a new intraday record of $65 a barrel Wednesday, even though U.S. data reflected ample domestic supplies, with imports at their second-highest weekly average ever.

Refinery outages helped tighten U.S. gasoline inventories further last week -- sending futures prices for the fuel to uncharted territory, but the strong imports help raise crude supplies by as much as triple some market expectations.

September natural-gas futures mirrored the strength among its energy peers to end above $9 per million British thermal units, the first time since November of last year on a monthly average basis.

Crude for September delivery climbed as high as $65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the first time a benchmark contract has ever reached a level that high. The contract closed up $1.83, or 2.9%, at $64.90 a barrel -- the highest close ever for a benchmark.

"The market shows crude stocks have indeed increased, but the market fails to believe we are building a comfortable cushion in inventories," said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service.

Instead, "traders are pricing in the worst fears from the Middle East tensions [and] Iran's nuclear program is an issue," he said. Added to that, there's the question of governmental stability in Saudi Arabia, and the "ongoing Iraq military policing action that no one wants to call a war," he said.

Those are "the real culprits behind the energy market's high prices," he said.



I think that it's a given that we'll see prices rise - not steadily perhaps- until at least after Sept. 11.

After all, it's not like we're asking the Saudis to, you know, actually bring democracy and religious freedom to the place that spawned al Qaeda...

And of course lost in all of this is actually, you know, remembering the dead, and trying to execute a coherent policy for dealing with the root causes of Islamic fundamentalist religious terrorism connected with our greed for oil.





 
  Just remember:



For every Cindy Sheehan, there's not only a Casey Sheehan, but also a Gennaro Pellegrini, and their experiences carry far more weight than the 101st Keyboarders.

I'm sure the right is scrounging right now to find some dead soldier's mother who - in the midst of her grief- can't bring herself out of her denial to admit that George W. Bush needlessly brought on her son's death.


 
  News bits:



Yesterday, I was at a loss for particularly interesting things to blog, even though Jerry Garcia was 10 years dead, and Abe Hirschfeld died yesterday.

So, I'll just summarize here whatever might be of interest:

Kansas still doesn't like evolution.

TOPEKA, Kan., Aug. 9 (AP) - The State Board of Education has approved the latest draft of science standards that include greater criticism of evolution.

The board approved the draft on Tuesday by a vote to 6 to 4. It then voted to send it to be reviewed by outside academics. The board is expected to give its final approval in October.

The draft says the board is not advocating the teaching of "intelligent design," which contends that some features of the natural world are best explained by an intelligent creator, not evolution. But the language favored by the board does come from advocates of intelligent design.


Conduct unbecoming an officer
:

DENVER (AP) -- An Air Force Reserve colonel could face criminal charges for allegedly vandalizing cars at Denver International Airport bearing pro-Bush bumper stickers.

Lt. Col. Alexis Fecteau, director of operations for reserve forces at the National Security Space Institute in Colorado Springs, is believed responsible for defacing at least 10 parked vehicles between December and June, police spokesman Sonny Jackson said Tuesday.

A bait car left by a police detective was also defaced and the detective tracked down Fecteau, who turned himself in Friday. He was released on bond.


China reveals what's in its basket but not how much:


SHANGHAI, China (AP) -- China disclosed for the first time Wednesday the composition of the basket of currencies used to set the yuan's value, saying it mainly includes the dollar, euro, yen and Korean won.

The currencies of Singapore, Britain, Malaysia, Russia, Australia, Canada and Thailand are also considered in setting the yuan's foreign exchange rate, Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank governor, said during a speech to launch a new operations center for the People's Bank of China in Shanghai.


Huawei wants Marconi:

After computers, cars and oil, will China's foreign acquisition target be telephones?

British news reports say Huawei Technologies Inc., China's biggest maker of telecommunications equipment, is in talks with Marconi Corp. PLC on a possible takeover of the struggling British firm, the Associated Press reported.

The news suggests that corporate China hasn't lost its appetite for foreign assets despite the acrimonious, highly publicized withdrawal last week of CNOOC Ltd.'s US$18.5 billion (euro15 billion) bid for U.S. oil and gas producer Unocal Corp.

A Huawei-Marconi deal, if completed, would be hugely symbolic: The purchase of a British industrial landmark -- one that traces its roots to the inventor of radio -- by a 17-year-old firm that represents China's new economic vigor and high-tech ambitions.

A Huawei spokesman declined Tuesday to comment. Marconi issued a statement in London saying it was exploring "all strategic options" with other firms. It didn't confirm whether that meant Huawei and warned that there was no assurance it could make a deal.

Huawei and Marconi make telecom switching equipment -- the guts of a phone system that the public doesn't see but that is critically important in the age of cell phones and the Internet.

Unlike CNOOC's bid, a tie-up between them would have more in common with successful acquisitions involving struggling foreign companies that actively courted Chinese buyers as corporate saviors.

The deal could be worth 560 million British pounds ($1 billion), according to London's Sunday Times.



The Yen is doing well in early trading...

he yen surged higher in European morning trade on Wednesday amid a potent cocktail of buoyant equity markets, a strengthening Japanese economy and signs that Junichiro Koizumi may be returned as prime minister after September’s snap election.

Opinion polls released on Wednesday showed an increase in Mr Koizumi’s approval rating, while a majority of respondents said they supported Mr Koizumi’s plans to privatise the postal service, the issue that brought his government down.

Moreover Japan’s domestic corporate goods price index, a measure of wholesale prices, rose 1.5 per cent year-on-year in July, outstripping forecasts and raising hopes that deflation may be on the way to being defeated.

Furthermore Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 stock market index rose 1.7 per cent on Wednesday, extending Tuesday’s 1 per cent gain and pushing the index to its highest close since April 2004. Foreign investors are likely to be playing a part in the rally - supporting the yen in the process. In July foreigners bought Y1,323bn of Japanese equities, the highest figure since March 2004.

As a result the yen rose Y1.1 to Y110.83 against the US dollar, Y1.1 to Y137.39 against the euro and Y1.1 to Y198.93 against sterling.

“The yen has clearly been the big mover in the foreign exchange market with a notable pick-up in demand reflecting rising optimism over the economic outlook and falling pessimism over the political outlook,” said Derek Halpenny, senior currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.




James Dobson invokes Godwin's law again
, but without any real swastika-wavers, unlike folks who criticize the Minute Men.


 
Monday, August 08, 2005
  Sometimes, you invoke Godwin's law because there really are Nazis



Or at least when some folks carry around Nazi flags, it does cause for some confusion, now wouldn't it?


 
  It's the economy...



I'm amused by the fact that righties like to bash Kos; generally the economic outlook posed by their diarists has been spot on and has been the very good for making investment decisions. Included in the above is this diary:



1. Real inflation paid by real people is moderately high.
2. Since wages are nowhere near keeping pace, real wages are dropping.
3. Real unemployment - that is the kind you and I feel, rather than the kind Greenspan feels - is also reasonably high historically. (Check out the graph).
3. Historically speaking an inflation rate of 5.8% and an unemployment rate of 7.2% is a crisis that calls for drastic government action.
4. That's why Bush is unpopular...

But wait there's more. (Of course there's more, that's what more means) Housing inflation is heavily weighted to the two coasts. Again checking the same numbers as before - only for the coastal areas, one finds that housing inflation isn't adding about 2.6% to places like New York - but closer to 5.5% This means that if you live in the bicoastal areas, inflation doesn't feel bad, it feels blood awful...

What looking at real economic statistics says is that the US has been hovering above recession for over a year now. What is propping up the economy is a huge binge of spending - both war time spending such as the Iraq war and its associated costs, tax reductions that pump money into the economy, and huge pork bills like the transportation bill, the agriculture bill, the perscription drug benefit and the new energy bil.

In short, Bush is attempting to take America down the same road that Japan took in the wake of their 1987 crash: build a bubble in housing prices to keep the ruling party in power, and then use huge public spending injections, and geographic gerrymandering, to prevent the economy from completely meltingdown...

The problem is that no one else could do that much better. You see, the divergence between the real world and the government statistical world, creates a policy bind. The Fed can only do one thing at once. The fed is in a policy bind when it has to do opposite things. The last major policy bind was in 1998. Greenspan had to raise interest rates to cut off the stock bubble, and he had to lower them to deal with the world currency crisis. A better policy regime would have realized that two were the same problem - too much money flowing into the US - and done one thing to fix both. But the FM economy couldn't fix that problem...





I'll not in passing that the "FM economy" is reall a misnomer here; it's more of a "preserve the national banks" system...




The bottom line is that the old policy regime that has ruled since Reagan is faced with a crisis. That crisis is that while the economy is doing as well as it can do in its current form - as evidenced by "good" economic numbers - that economy is not generating enough activity to keep people happy. Governments are tottering in England, Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Canada and Japan - that is to say 7 of the G-8 - while there are job riots in China and India.

The economic statistics that show why people are unhappy - the inflation number with housing thrown in, the employment slack number, the GDP deflator with housing costs correctly calculated - show an economy in stagflation, propped up by massive borrow and squander policies.



Also great: this post on the quality of life in the US. Must reading.


 
  Yes, Bush let bin Laden get away....


This had been widely reported before the run-up to the Iraq war, it has been denied by Bush partisans, but this story just won't go away:

[I]n a forthcoming book, the CIA field commander for the agency's Jawbreaker team at Tora Bora, Gary Berntsen, says he and other U.S. commanders did know that bin Laden was among the hundreds of fleeing Qaeda and Taliban members. Berntsen says he had definitive intelligence that bin Laden was holed up at Tora Bora—intelligence operatives had tracked him—and could have been caught. "He was there," Berntsen tells NEWSWEEK. Asked to comment on Berntsen's remarks, National Security Council spokesman Frederick Jones passed on 2004 statements from former CENTCOM commander Gen. Tommy Franks. "We don't know to this day whether Mr. bin Laden was at Tora Bora in December 2001," Franks wrote in an Oct. 19 New York Times op-ed. "Bin Laden was never within our grasp." Berntsen says Franks is "a great American. But he was not on the ground out there. I was."

In his book—titled "Jawbreaker"—the decorated career CIA officer criticizes Donald Rumsfeld's Defense Department for not providing enough support to the CIA and the Pentagon's own Special Forces teams in the final hours of Tora Bora, says Berntsen's lawyer, Roy Krieger. (Berntsen would not divulge the book's specifics, saying he's awaiting CIA clearance.) That backs up other recent accounts, including that of military author Sean Naylor, who calls Tora Bora a "strategic disaster" because the Pentagon refused to deploy a cordon of conventional forces to cut off escaping Qaeda and Taliban members. Maj. Todd Vician, a Defense Department spokesman, says the problem at Tora Bora "was not necessarily just the number of troops.



 
  Krugman explains the housing bubble...



Forget what Atrios says (can't figure out for the life of me why he'd be critical of Krugman on this), this primer's as good as it gets:

Even some of the players are the same. The authors of the 1999 best seller "Dow 36,000" are now among the most vocal proponents of the view that there is no housing bubble.

Then there are the numbers. Many bubble deniers point to average prices for the country as a whole, which look worrisome but not totally crazy. When it comes to housing, however, the United States is really two countries, Flatland and the Zoned Zone.

In Flatland, which occupies the middle of the country, it's easy to build houses. When the demand for houses rises, Flatland metropolitan areas, which don't really have traditional downtowns, just sprawl some more. As a result, housing prices are basically determined by the cost of construction. In Flatland, a housing bubble can't even get started.

But in the Zoned Zone, which lies along the coasts, a combination of high population density and land-use restrictions - hence "zoned" - makes it hard to build new houses. So when people become willing to spend more on houses, say because of a fall in mortgage rates, some houses get built, but the prices of existing houses also go up. And if people think that prices will continue to rise, they become willing to spend even more, driving prices still higher, and so on. In other words, the Zoned Zone is prone to housing bubbles.

And Zoned Zone housing prices, which have risen much faster than the national average, clearly point to a bubble...


I hadn't heard that the Dow 36,000 folks had gotten into the act... but with the re-appearance of George Gilder in "Intelligent" "design" I'm not surprised.



 
Sunday, August 07, 2005
  Krauthammer "Intelligent" "Design" is OK, as long as he gets the Iraq debacle...



James Wolcott called my attention to it: "[P]eople of my ilk care a lot more about Iraq than about textbooks in Kansas.”



Yeah, neocons just don't care about veracity.


 
  Already obsolete model on the yuan...



The NY Times business section I think specializes in conventional wisdom...it's article on the backfire effects of the rising yuan was something that was mentioned on this blog at least 4 months ago...

Most analysts have already figured out that the yuan's climb so far has been insignificant. But some of the most ardent advocates of yuan revaluation are still hoping for an appreciation of 6 to 7 percent a month in the currency, the maximum drift that the Chinese central bank will allow, according to its original announcement. Senators Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York, and Lindsey O. Graham, Republican of South Carolina, are aiming for a total appreciation of around 27.5 percent. M. Brian O'Shaughnessy, chief executive of Revere Copper Products in Rome, N.Y., said he needed 40 percent immediately. "Otherwise, it won't have any impact," he said.

But even a yuan revaluation of 40 percent wouldn't significantly improve the overall balance of trade of the United States. For that to happen, the currencies of other developing countries would have to rise in tandem. If they didn't, the loss of competitiveness of Chinese manufacturers would move Americans to buy their products only from low-cost countries like Bangladesh, reallocating, but not reducing, America's external shortfall.

"The dollar has to fall not only against China but against the whole trade-weighted basket," said Barry Eichengreen, a professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley.

Still, assuming against all odds that all this happened, what would the results be for the American economy? Nicholas R. Lardy, a China expert at the Institute for International Economics who has been calling for the yuan to rise, says some American manufacturing jobs could be saved.

He acknowledges that it wouldn't help all industries. Much of the less complex stuff that Americans buy from China is no longer made in the United States. Some of it moved to Japan a long time ago. Then Japan lost that manufacturing to South Korea, and South Korea lost it to China. It's unlikely that the United States will ever recover it, he said.

Yet for manufacturers of products like semiconductors or molded plastics - which aren't so low tech that they moved overseas long ago, but are not so high tech that labor costs are of no relevance - a currency shift of 20 or 25 percent could be important. It could make the difference between staying in the United States, where the going wage for a manufacturing worker averages about $16.50 an hour, or moving to China, where it is nearer to $1.25 an hour.


Two words sums up the obsolecence of this position: peak oil.

All this globalization is predicated on the assumption of cheap energy to move goods around the world, and to power lots of servers to outsource internet based services.

What happens when the energy becomes very expensive?

Which is bigger - labor costs or energy costs? Depends on the industry.




 
  Deconstructing content and content creation



The NY Times magazine article on "Red vs. Blue" is good reading..

Whenever a friend discovered a particularly cool stunt inside Halo -- for example, obliterating an enemy with a new type of grenade toss -- Burns would record a video of the stunt for posterity. (His friend would perform the move after Burns had run a video cord from his TV to his computer, so he could save it onto his hard drive.) Then he'd post the video on a Web site to show other gamers how the trick was done. To make the videos funnier, sometimes Burns would pull out a microphone and record a comedic voice-over, using video-editing software to make it appear as if the helmeted soldier himself were doing the talking.

Then one day he realized that the videos he was making were essentially computer-animated movies, almost like miniature emulations of ''Finding Nemo'' or ''The Incredibles.'' He was using the game to function like a personal Pixar studio. He wondered: Could he use it to create an actual movie or TV series?

Burns's group decided to give it a shot. They gathered around the Xbox at Burns's apartment, manipulating their soldiers like tiny virtual actors, bobbing their heads to look as if they were deep in conversation. Burns wrote sharp, sardonic scripts for them to perform. He created a comedy series called ''Red vs. Blue,'' a sort of sci-fi version of ''M*A*S*H.'' In ''Red vs. Blue,'' the soldiers rarely do any fighting; they just stand around insulting one another and musing over the absurdities of war, sounding less like patriotic warriors than like bored, clever video-store clerks. The first 10-minute episode opened with a scene set in Halo's bleakest desert canyon...

...Video-game aficionados have been creating ''machinima'' -- an ungainly term mixing ''machine'' and ''cinema'' and pronounced ma-SHEEN-i-ma -- since the late 90's. ''Red vs. Blue'' is the first to break out of the underground, and now corporations like Volvo are hiring machinima artists to make short promotional films, while MTV, Spike TV and the Independent Film Channel are running comedy shorts and music videos produced inside games. By last spring, Burns and his friends were making so much money from ''Red vs. Blue'' that they left their jobs and founded Rooster Teeth Productions. Now they produce machinima full time...

...Perhaps the most unusual thing about machinima is that none of its creators are in jail. After all, they're gleefully plundering intellectual property at a time when the copyright wars have become particularly vicious. Yet video-game companies have been upbeat -- even exuberant -- about the legions of teenagers and artists pillaging their games. This is particularly bewildering in the case of ''Red vs. Blue,'' because Halo is made by Bungie, a subsidiary of Microsoft, a company no stranger to using a courtroom to defend its goods. What the heck is going on?

ure, Rooster Teeth ripped off Microsoft's intellectual property. But Microsoft got something in return: ''Red vs. Blue'' gave the game a whiff of countercultural coolness, the sort of grass-roots street cred that major corporations desperately crave but can never manufacture. After talking with Rooster Teeth, Microsoft agreed, remarkably, to let them use the game without paying any licensing fees at all. In fact, the company later hired Rooster Teeth to produce ''Red vs. Blue'' videos to play as advertisements in game stores. Microsoft has been so strangely solicitous that when it was developing the sequel to Halo last year, the designers actually inserted a special command -- a joystick button that makes a soldier lower his weapon -- designed solely to make it easier for Rooster Teeth to do dialogue.

''If you're playing the game, there's no reason to lower your weapon at all,'' Burns explained. ''They put that in literally just so we can shoot machinima.''

Other game companies have gone even further. Many now include editing software with their games, specifically to encourage fans to shoot movies. When Valve software released its hit game Half-Life 2 last year, it included ''Faceposer'' software so that machinima creators could tweak the facial expressions of characters. When the Sims 2 -- a sequel to the top-selling game of all time -- came out last year, its publisher, Electronic Arts, set up a Web site so that fans could upload their Sims 2 movies to show to the world. (About 8,000 people so far have done so.)



This is one more instance of the maxim that once a medium for communication and content delivery is created, the end consumer will deconstruct the relationships between content creation and distribution in ways unforseen by the creators, as anyone who's seen a 2 year old with a VCR knows.

Savvy producers of content and content creation/rendering devices will let consumers mess with it to create new content...a sort of Mystery Science Theater 3000 for everyone...


Red vs. Blue videos can be watched here. Some are laugh out loud funny.



 
Saturday, August 06, 2005
  The Rove- Novak relationship raises more questions...



Robert Novak got benched this week from CNN for saying "bullshit" more or less out of the blue, as anyone who's seen the now famous Novak meltdown will attest.

Well, the NY Times follows up today with a retrospective on Rove's relationship with Novak, ...

In 1992 in an incident well known in Texas, Mr. Rove was fired from the state campaign to re-elect the first President Bush on suspicions that Mr. Rove had leaked damaging information to Mr. Novak about Robert Mosbacher Jr., the campaign manager and the son of a former commerce secretary.

Since then, Mr. Rove and Mr. Novak have denied that Mr. Rove was the source, even as Mr. Mosbacher, who no longer talks on the record about the incident, has never changed his original assertion that Mr. Rove was the culprit.

"It's history," Mr. Mosbacher said last week in a brief telephone interview. "I commented on it at the time, and I have nothing to add."

But the episode, part of the bad-boy lore of Mr. Rove, is a telling chapter in the 20-year friendship between the presidential adviser and the columnist. The story of that relationship, a bond of mutual self-interest of a kind that is long familiar in Washington, does not answer the question of who might have leaked the identity of the C.I.A. officer, Valerie Wilson, to reporters, potentially a crime.

But it does give a clue to Mr. Rove's frequent and complimentary mentions over the years in Mr. Novak's column, and to the importance of Mr. Rove and Mr. Novak to each other's ambitions.

"They've known each for a long time, but they are not close friends," said a person who knows both men and who asked not to be named because of the investigation into a conversation by Mr. Novak and Mr. Rove in July 2003 about Ms. Wilson,...


I guess that source is Rove's lawyer Luskin, but it begs the larger question: if they're not friends what are they? Lovers? Prostitute and customer? Acquaintences? Scumbags thinking they're using each other?

About Novak I have this today: he should have been fired 20 years ago from every media outlet he was on; the most striking thing I've seen about him was his almost pathological ability to avoid the truth.

As is commonly said in the lefty blogosphere: the guy outs a CIA operative and keeps his job, but he says "bullshit" and gets fired?

Geez.


 
  Cheap Labor Conservatives



The folks at Powerline wonder why the Bush regime's handling of the economy isn't praised more highly...(these folks would be right at home in Stalin's Russia or Kim's North Korea...)

The oddest thing about the strong economic growth that has taken place over the last several years is how stubbornly many people refuse to recognize it. Polls continue to suggest that most Americans are unaware of the economy's excellent performance. Can that really be true? No doubt inadequate news coverage is a factor, but I can't believe that a majority of Americans really have no idea how the economy is performing. I suspect that when asked about the economy in opinion surveys, many people focus on what they perceive to be negative at the time--budget deficits, the price of gasoline--either because that's what's in the news, or because they hope to influence the government by voicing dissatisfaction.


But of course that only points out a very obvious fact: the folks at Powerline are a bunch of elitists disconnected from the needs of average Americans.

The New York Times editorial page - yeah, the folks who brought us Judith Miller- are right on this point:

With July's number, the average monthly job creation so far this year comes to 191,000. (Since the spring of 2003, when job losses bottomed out, the monthly average has been 152,000.) That's enough to absorb the 150,000 or so new workers who enter the labor force each month, and then some. Still, it's not robust. If jobs were being created today at the same pace as in other economic recoveries since World War II, the monthly average would be about 250,000.

Employment rates - the share of the population that is employed, broken down by groups - tell a similar story. The rates ticked up slightly for most groups in July, including for African-American men and high school dropouts. That's encouraging because it's generally assumed that if the least-advantaged workers can find jobs, higher-skilled workers will do even better. Nevertheless, employment rates are still well below their most recent peak, in 2000.

Because the demand for workers has been subpar for some four years now, wages have suffered. Average hourly wages rose a surprising 0.4 percent in July, the strongest monthly surge in a year. But they're up only 2.7 percent over the past year, hardly keeping up with inflation. Asked about that yesterday, Secretary Chao replied that overall compensation - which includes employer-provided health care and other benefits - was rising faster than the cost of living. That's correct, but somewhat disingenuous. The fact that workers' raises are, in effect, being diverted to cover the exploding cost of benefits is hardly a positive development.


Can the folks at Powerline be so utterly clueless to not realize that the weakness in the job market, combined with exploding health care, reduced returns on retirement investments, and the increasing cost of energy's impoverishing America?

HT: Atrios, oddly enough, who cited Bush's radio address, and implying obliquely that stuff like lots of troops getting killed this week was "left out," but even on Bush's chosen topic the truth was left out.


 
Friday, August 05, 2005
  Over a barrel



Link

Terrorists yesterday struck oil facilities in the US and Saudi Arabia, pushing oil prices to a record $120 a barrel and doubling to $5,214 the expected annual petrol bill for the average US household. Economists warned of the imminent collapse of the US's economic recovery and a loss of more than 2m jobs, the largest drop since 1945.

While none of this is true, the scenario is thoroughly plausible, according to high-ranking former government, military and intelligence officials who made up the US cabinet in a simulation exercise that is gaining increasing attention from members of Congress, the White House and oil executives.

"The risk of supply disruption in the oil markets now appears to be at one of the highest levels in history, primarily because of the thin cushion of spare capacity," John Dowd, analyst at Sanford Bernstein, which prepared the simulation's price reactions, ...

For the scenario, which included the evacuation of foreign workers from Saudi Arabia and unrest in Nigeria, analysts at Sanford Bernstein calculated that a 4 per cent reduction in world oil supply would increase prices by more than 170 per cent...

The mock cabinet concluded that the strategic petroleum reserve was of limited usefulness in such a crisis – it chose to tap it only when prices went to $120 a barrel. Using some of the emergency barrels too early could send prices higher, they said, because traders would worry that less emergency oil would be available if a more serious disruption ensued.

But the limited size of the stocks – the equivalent of two months of US imports – meant the reserve was useless for longer-term disruptions, such as an evacuation of all foreign personnel from Saudi Arabia, which was one of the scenarios presented in the role-play...


Oil closed at a record today.


 
  Chip off the ol' block...




My son turns 4 on Monday, and already he's showing a precocious prediliction for le bad cinema.

He seems to love the latest video rental he insisted I get for him: "37 Ninja Kids."

See John Seal's review for "plot" and overall character of the film. Even my son gets that it's a cheesy flick.


 
  Really, the "scientific" righties didn't expect this?



Paul Krugman draws the obvious line from supply side economics, to global warming to "intelligent" "design." (He left out the propaganda of the Iraq fiasco and the phony "ties" of Saddam Huessein to al Qaeda , but it's in the same box...)

Back in 1978 Mr. Kristol urged corporations to make "philanthropic contributions to scholars and institutions who are likely to advocate preservation of a strong private sector." That was delicately worded, but the clear implication was that corporations that didn't like the results of academic research, however valid, should support people willing to say something more to their liking.

Mr. Kristol led by example, using The Public Interest to promote supply-side economics, a doctrine whose central claim - that tax cuts have such miraculous positive effects on the economy that they pay for themselves - has never been backed by evidence. He would later concede, or perhaps boast, that he had a "cavalier attitude toward the budget deficit."

"Political effectiveness was the priority," he wrote in 1995, "not the accounting deficiencies of government."...

Some of America's most powerful politicians have a deep hatred for Darwinism. Tom DeLay, the House majority leader, blamed the theory of evolution for the Columbine school shootings. But sheer political power hasn't been enough to get creationism into the school curriculum. The theory of evolution has overwhelming scientific support, and the country isn't ready - yet - to teach religious doctrine in public schools.

But what if creationists do to evolutionary theory what corporate interests did to global warming: create a widespread impression that the scientific consensus has shaky foundations?

Creationists failed when they pretended to be engaged in science, not religious indoctrination: "creation science" was too crude to fool anyone. But intelligent design, which spreads doubt about evolution without being too overtly religious, may succeed where creation science failed.

The important thing to remember is that like supply-side economics or global-warming skepticism, intelligent design doesn't have to attract significant support from actual researchers to be effective. All it has to do is create confusion, to make it seem as if there really is a controversy about the validity of evolutionary theory.


Now the second sentence of the above is often why people don't like Krugman, but he has a point here: these people all didn't care to keep an open mind and see where the facts, observations, and experiments would lead them. So it's kind of amusing that the "scientific righties" (see here and here for examples) are shocked, shocked that George W. Bush, to pander to the theocratic wing of his party, would actually speak in favor of "intelligent" "design."

Look, they've been slinging delusional horse feces for years because political effectiveness was the priority.

Why do they think Bush would quit if he's goring hard sciences, when he's already gored economics, social sciences, and military science?

Spare us the outrage. As one of Balloon Juice's commenters says, "Hey, you invited these idiots to the party. Too bad we all gotta dance with them."

Yeah, yeah, yeah, there's crackpots in the Democratic party, too. But they don't have a scintilla of juice in the current climate.

Update:




 
Thursday, August 04, 2005
  Another post on Kos well worth reading...



One man - who performs abortions- speaks up against acts of terrorism aimed against him.


It's one thing to be against abortion - or to have any position on the subject. It's yet another to try to justify an incitement to violence against those who are doing legalized abortions. And denial of an incitement to violence does not negate the fact that it is an incitement to violence.


 
  Another scandal of Plame size proportions?



For some reason, yesterday, I kept thinking Raw Story would break something significant, but I didn't see anything...but today...they're citing a soon-to-be-published Vanity Fair article claiming:


[FBI whistleblower Sibel Edmonds] reported hearing Turkish wiretap targets boast that they had a covert relationship with...Dennis Hastert, Republican congressman from Illinois and Speaker of the House since 1999. The targets reportedly discussed giving Hastert tens of thousands of dollars in surreptitious payments in exchange for political favors and information...


And in case anybody doesn't know about Edmonds...

On top of the usual prohibition against disclosing classified information, the Bush administration has smothered her case beneath the all-encompassing blanket of the “state-secrets privilege”—a Draconian and rarely used legal weapon that allows the government, merely by asserting a risk to national security, to prevent the lawsuits Edmonds has field contesting her treatment from being heard in court at all. According to the Department of Justice, to allow Edmonds her day in court, even at a closed hearing attended only by personnel with full security clearance, “could reasonably be expected to cause serious damage to the foreign policy and national security of the United States.”

Edmonds’ attorney, who works for the ACLU, says: “It also begs a question: Just what in the world is the government trying to hide?”



If this is true- that officals in the Bush regime were actively trying to thwart an investigation into Hatert- to me this would be a crime comprising the very essence, the sine qua non, the genuine article, of a high crime against the United States of America.

And whoever did that ought to, you know, have their own special prosecutor on their heels..




HT: BarbinMD on Kos.

 
  Real flesh and blood people are dying...





Regular commenter Matthew Goggins lost an acquaintance in Iraq.

Last night, Steven and his translator, Noor Al-Khal, were abducted off the street in Basra and subsequently shot and dumped outside. Noor Al-Khal is hospitalized in serious condition, but Steven was killed.

His murder was perhaps in retaliation for an op-ed of his that appeared in this past Sunday's New York Times. The op-ed is highly critical of "Islamic extremists and their Western-trained police enforcers" in Basra. His murder may also have been meant to keep him from writing his forthcoming book about Basra and southern Iraq.


From my added hyperlink:

... security sector reform is failing the very people it is intended to serve: average Iraqis who simply want to go about their lives. As has been widely reported of late, Basran politics (and everyday life) is increasingly coming under the control of Shiite religious groups, from the relatively mainstream Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq to the bellicose followers of the rebel cleric Moktada al-Sadr. Recruited from the same population of undereducated, underemployed men who swell these organizations' ranks, many of Basra's rank-and-file police officers maintain dual loyalties to mosque and state.

In May, the city's police chief told a British newspaper that half of his 7,000-man force was affiliated with religious parties. This may have been an optimistic estimate: one young Iraqi officer told me that "75 percent of the policemen I know are with Moktada al-Sadr - he is a great man." And unfortunately, the British seem unable or unwilling to do anything about it.

The fact that the British are in effect strengthening the hand of Shiite organizations is not lost on Basra's residents.

"No one trusts the police," one Iraqi journalist told me. "If our new ayatollahs snap their fingers, thousands of police will jump." Mufeed al-Mushashaee, the leader of a liberal political organization called the Shabanea Rebellion, told me that he felt that "the entire force should be dissolved and replaced with people educated in human rights and democracy."


I often disagree with Matthew Goggins on many points, but on this we can agree: real people are caught up in this. This is not talk radio continued by other means, but it is people sacrificing their lives. Real lives.


 
Wednesday, August 03, 2005
  Is the IMF about to go medieval on us?



Link

WASHINGTON, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The global economy's watchdog is growing nervous.

For years, the International Monetary Fund has warned that swelling budget deficits in the United States -- its biggest and most influential shareholder -- were feeding global economic imbalances that threaten world growth.

Now, worried that Washington is turning a deaf ear to its warnings, the IMF plans to lean harder on the world's rich nations to help fix the U.S. trade deficit as well as slow growth in Europe and Japan.

In April, the fund complained in its semi-annual World Economic Outlook that politicians around the globe were not keeping their promises to tackle these imbalances.

The IMF will seek to buttress its case in a September report on why the world's economic powers need bolder action...

U.S. officials also disagreed on the need for a more ambitious effort to cut the deficit, the report said, and argued this would not necessarily do much to help rebalance the global economy.

"More significant differences of view have emerged on the size and speed of fiscal consolidation and global current account imbalances," the report said in a highlighted box calling attention to points of contention.

"The (U.S.) authorities have disagreed that the large U.S. current account deficit -- which they see as largely reflecting weak demand growth in key partners -- poses a significant risk of 'disorderly adjustment,' or that it argues for more aggressive fiscal adjustment," it said...

The Bush administration, in a recent updated forecast that takes into account an unexpected surge in revenue, estimates the gap will shrink to $333 billion, or 2.7 percent of GDP, in the current fiscal year, which ends on Sept. 30.

"We have a pretty good handle on what the strategy is to accomplish those goals," Treasury's Fratto said. "We don't see a reason to change that tack."

However, many economists -- as well as the IMF -- warn the deficit narrowing is likely to prove short-lived.

If foreign investors decided to pull their money out, the dollar could tumble and U.S. interest rates could surge, damaging both the U.S. and global economies, the IMF says.


Iraq costs money...empires cost money...


 
  Outsourcing Hollywood...




Thomas Friedman today mentions the woeful state of technology in the US...he's right of course (but the fact that defense sucks up so much talent isn't mentioned)...but...as usual... Friedman misses the mark when he gets to:

The technological model coming next - which Howard Dean accidentally uncovered but never fully developed - will revolve around the power of networks and blogging. The public official or candidate will no longer just be the one who talks to the many or tries to listen to the many. Rather, he or she will be a hub of connectivity for the many to work with the many - creating networks of public advocates to identify and solve problems and get behind politicians who get it.


Dean's working on it - and the near win by Paul Hackett in one of the most Republican districts in the country shows how it can work.

But I digress a bit...


I rented House of Flying Daggers last night. The movie has its flaws... a shot or two where a foreshadowing is expected but never delivered, a loose end of the plot here and there, a couple of shots on horesback a few seconds too long, and about one too many plot convolutions.

But... it is probably the best movie of its genre I've ever seen. It has something for everyone over the age of about 10 or so - with the exception of an abundance of profanity, gore, and explicit nudity. Its special effects blend with surrealism; its character developments are superb, it shows the effects of people who know how to capture an image. They guy who directed this knows about good moviemaking. (For other viewpoints, Rotten tomatoes is a good starting point.)

I've been amazed at the state of Chinese cinema- anybody who's seen The King of Masks, or Shadow Magic, for example knows that Chinese cinema does things that Hollywood for some reason can't or won't do. In a country that admittedly doesn't have a great reputation for civil liberties in the US, they are producing better content than the US, which, for all its vaunted Hollywood muscle, can't produce anything better this summer than a movie about penguins.

I suspect that it's only a matter of time before China gets the hang of making movies for an explictly American audience- and then Hollywood will be doomed. Or irrelevant, if China makes movies that the rest of the world likes better than American movies about TV shows ... I mean, really, a movie based on the Dukes of Hazard???

Is it any wonder that the world is turning its back on brand America?


The US is increasingly viewed as a “culture-free zone” inhabited by arrogant and unfriendly people, according to study of 25 countries' brand reputation.

The findings, published online on Monday, will add to concerns that anti-Americanism is hurting companies whose products are considered to be distinctly “American”. The Anholt-GMI Nation Brands Index found that although US foreign policy remained a key driver of hostility, dissatisfaction with the world's sole superpower might run deeper.

“The US is still recognised as a leading place to do business, the home of desirable brands and popular culture,” said Simon Anholt, author of the survey. “But its governance, its cultural heritage and its people are no longer widely respected or admired by the world.”...

“Right now the US government is not a credible messenger,” said Mr Reinhard, chairman of DDB Worldwide, the advertising group. “We must work to build bridges of understanding and co-operation and respect through business-to-business activities.”...

That the world takes a dim view of the US people will surprise most Americans themselves: the study's American respondents consistently placed the US at the top of all six categories polled.



HT: Atrios on the Friedman article...


 
Tuesday, August 02, 2005
  What's behind the oil price rises this week...



Buried in a Marketwatch report, was this tidbit:

The reality is that "Abdullah's been in charge for 10 years and won't change policy," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc.

Defense Minister Sultan bin Abdulaziz was nominated crown prince, but "with Abdullah and Sultan both in their 80s, it is important for the Saudis to identify a younger man as future leader of the kingdom," said James Williams, an economist at WTRG Ecnomics in a recent note to clients.

Looking ahead, "oil will become more and more sensitive to geopolitical rumblings the smaller the spare capacity gets. Therefore volatility is expected to increase toward the last quarter of this year as traditionally consumption starts to pick up," analysts from Fortis Bank wrote in a research note.


Clearly the Saudis are like the Soviets in the early 80's before Gorbachev. They're running out of old people to keep things as they are.


 
  Good investing news....



Hopefully, regulators will approve this ETF commodity fund.

A good way - if it's soundly done- to diversify.


 
  Speaking of reincarnation...



Now I don't literally take claims of reincarnation and souls seriously...(and I think Buddhism's take on it is generally far more sublte than is often presented by critics), but given:

a) the fact that the elements that compose us have been recycled quite a bit - every breath we breathe contains molecules breathed by Caeser or Socrates... and

b) our bodies recycle themselves

it's more of a superstition to see "our bodies" as fixed objects into which a "soul" is poured...

From the above link...

Whatever your age, your body is many years younger. In fact, even if you're middle aged, most of you may be just 10 years old or less.

This heartening truth, which arises from the fact that most of the body's tissues are under constant renewal, has been underlined by a novel method of estimating the age of human cells. Its inventor, Jonas Frisen, believes the average age of all the cells in an adult's body may turn out to be as young as 7 to 10 years.

But Dr. Frisen, a stem cell biologist at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm, has also discovered a fact that explains why people behave their birth age, not the physical age of their cells: a few of the body's cell types endure from birth to death without renewal, and this special minority includes some or all of the cells of the cerebral cortex...

Prevailing belief, by and large, is that the brain does not generate new neurons after its structure is complete, except in two specific regions, the olfactory bulb that mediates the sense of smell, and the hippocampus, where initial memories of faces and places are laid down.

This consensus view was challenged a few years ago by Elizabeth Gould of Princeton, who reported finding new neurons in the cerebral cortex, along with the elegant idea that each day's memories might be recorded in the neurons generated that day.

Dr. Frisen's method will enable all regions of the brain to be dated to see if any new neurons are generated. So far he has tested only cells from the visual cortex. He finds these are exactly the same age as the individual, showing that new neurons are not generated after birth in this region of the cerebral cortex, or at least not in significant numbers. Cells of the cerebellum are slightly younger than those of the cortex, which fits with the idea that the cerebellum continues developing after birth.


So maybe it's just some cells that are "reincarnated" around a new body recycled eveyr 7-10 years.

I don't think about it all that much though...some Tibetans, I understand, hold that
rebirth takes places in fractions of seconds...

But - like hell- I think that there's a point beyond this birth/death dance that's more important...and it's not a "place" we go when we die...

I don't think it was all that important to the historical Buddha anyway- it's simply that the prevailing religion in which he found himself- Hinduism- already had that structure, but "where" he was birth and death were transcended- meaning that they did not become obstacles (factoid: "obstacle" and "diabolic" have the same root words).





 
  Kos gets this one right....



I have a problem with the DLC: they have failed to address the real problems facing America, and for years wanted to be nothing more than "Republican lite."

Kos lays out the real reasons for the power struggle now, - or should I see retreat by the DLC forces- and illustrates why Hilary made a big faux pas by cozying up to them:

DLC became a power player in the party by becoming a conduit for corporate money at a time when the Democratic Party was starved for funds. The price -- the party had to abandon working-class Americans on behalf of those Big Corporate interests. As for the DLC, it was the financial gatekeeper, and enjoyed all the associated perks.

Suddenly, a centrist governor burst into the scene -- Howard Dean. Just a year or two prior, Dean had been lauded by the DLC for his centrism, yet they weren't happy with the new-look Dean. Part of it was his anti-war stance, in an organization stock-full of chickenhawks. But more threatening to the DLC was the source of Dean's funding -- people. Regular people, like me and you. Dean no longer had to prostrate himself before the DLC's corporate masters and pay proper homage. The DLC no longer played gatekeeper. And if From and Co. can't control the flow of money, they lose their influence.

That's the root of this feud. It isn't about middle, center, right, left, liberal or whatever. Witness how often Armando has linked to the DLC's Ed Kilgore (a well-liked, genuinely nice guy) in the past. And rarely (if ever) in a way that offended my own politics (nor most of yours, I would venture to guess). Remember that when the DLC cries that the Big Bad Liberals are out to stamp out the Poor Moderates in the party.

In reality, it's about who controls the money. And that's why the DLC is becoming irrelevant (hence the importance to them of the Hillary pact), and why it is doomed to irrelevance.


I have no idea what Kos's "plan" is, but I do know this: the new democrat network (spawned from the DLC, but not associated with them today) has a real agenda, and the DLC doesn't.


 
  In case you wanted an instance of someone calling a returning Iraq war vet a "baby killer"



Here'a a good example of one.

Now I will admit, this right wing guy didn't call Ohio congressional candidate Paul Hackett a baby killer because of his service to our country. But that still does not make Hacket a baby killer.





 
Monday, August 01, 2005
  This should shock people with a conscience...



Link

Around the nation, [Prison Health Services] has drawn criticism from judges, government overseers, and whistle-blowers, and has paid millions of dollars in fines and settlements. In New York, state regulators have faulted Prison Health in several deaths, and are investigating whether it is even operating legally in the state. Yet the company has continued to grow, absorbing rivals and winning new contracts; its largest, serving New York City's jails, was renewed in January, as Dr. Chijide was lodging her complaints...



Read the whole article; and then ask yourself: who is funding this? For how much? Who owns Prison Health Services? How much money are they making? Prison Health Services does not appear to be publicly traded.


 
  More from Pai Chang...



Link

A guest staying at the monastery said, ‘I do not know which of these three - a Vinaya master (upholder of monastic discipline), a Dharma master (skilled preacher), or a Ch’an master - is the greatest. I beg you, Master, out of compassion for my ignorance, to make the matter clear to me.’

M: ‘The Vinaya masters expound the discipline section of the scriptures and transmit the ancient tradition for preserving the infinite life of the Dharma (doctrine). Seeing clearly who are the upholders and who are the trans-gressors of the disciplinary rules, they know how to encourage the former and to restrain the latter. They know how to comport themselves in accordance with the rules and regulations in a manner which inspires respect. They officiate at the three kinds of confession which precede transmission of the Vinaya, and they teach the initial steps leading to the four grades of sainthood. Unless they have spent their lives virtuously up to the onset of old age, how will they dare take charge of those duties? The Dharma masters sit crosslegged upon their lion-thrones pouring forth rivers of eloquence to huge crowds, expounding means of chiselling a way through the Mysterious Pass, or of opening the marvellous Gates of Prajna by which the voidness of giver, receiver and alms is revealed."’ Who, unless they can trample all before them like a lion or an elephant, would dare undertake to be a match for all this? The Ch’an masters grasp at essentials and gain a direct understanding of the Mind Source. Their methods consist of revealing and hiding, of exposing and covering reality in a crisscross manner, which responds adequately to all the different grades of potentiality (for enlightenment).

They excel in harmonizing facts with the underlying principle, so that people may suddenly perceive the Tatha-

gata; and, by pulling up their deep samsaric roots, they cause their pupils to experience samadhi on the spot. Thus,

unless they are capable of achieving tranquillizing dhyana and imperturbable abstraction, they are certainly bound

to be flustered under such circumstances. Although the three methods of training - discipline, dhyana and wisdom differ in that they present the Dharma in a manner suited to the capability of each individual, once a disciple has awakened to their profound meaning by forgetting all about the wording, how do they differ from the One Vehicle?’O Wherefore it is written in a sutra: "In all the Buddha-realm-is of the ten quarters, there is only the Dharma of the One Vehicle" - there is neither a second nor a third, except in so far as the Buddha employed relative terms in his expedient teaching for the guidance of sentient beings.’...

7.Q: In the coming generation, there will be many followers of mixed beliefs; how are we to live side by side with them?

A: Share the light with them, but do not share their karmas. Although you may be staying with them, your minds will not dwell in the same place as theirs. There is a sutra which says: ‘Though it follows the current of circum-stances, its nature is unchanging.’ As to those other students of the Way, you are all studying the Way for the sake of that great cause - liberation; so, while never despising those who have not studied the Dharma, you should respect those who are studying it as you would respect the Buddha. Do not vaunt your own virtues nor envy the ability of others. Examine your own actions; do not hold up the faults of others. Thus, nowhere will you encounter obstruction and you will naturally enjoy happiness. I will summarize all this in the form of a gatha:

Forbearance is the best of ways;

But first dismiss both self and other.

When things occur, make no response

And thus achieve true Bodbikaya...



 
  This oughta be worth 3K words...










 
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