Thereare going to be surprises in October.

Sometimes, even righties reading things wrong can tell you things that make you think thoughts you wish you didn't.

Richard's thinking things are "turning the corner" in Iraq.

I say, and frankly with a feeling of nausea, if you look at the curves on page 3 of the Brookings Report, it's a bit obvious that troop deaths are correlated with political activity; the uprising (ongoing, really) prior to "handover" of "authority" was a time of increased violence.

Now, as Robert Fisk has pointed out,

One of the reasons why the Bush administration is getting away with so much at the moment is that the degree of anarchy, the sheer size of the area of Iraq outside government or American control is being hidden from ordinary people. For example, in the town of Baquba, there are now hundreds of armed men. In Ramadi and Fallujah, they're virtually people's republics in which even the Americans cannot move freely. We do not realize, though we should, the degree to which the country of Iraq is outside the control of the new American-established government of Ayad Allawi.

Now I predict that there will be an October Surprise: but it will surprise the Bush supporters, and I frankly wish this Surprise wouldn't happen. But I suspect that the Iraqi resistance is going to get somewhat more forceful before the US election.

Hold on tight- it's going to be a rough ride.