Tuesday, October 19, 2004

Looks like I'm going to win my bet...

2 weeks to go until election day; some 10 or 11 months ago I wagered a conservative that, barring an October Surprise, Bush would be re-defeated.

And it appears that this will be the case.

Two weeks before Election Day, voters hold a sharply critical view of President Bush's record in office, but they have strong reservations about Senator John Kerry, leaving the race in a tie, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

Mr. Bush's job approval rating is at 44 percent, a dangerously low number for an incumbent president, and one of the lowest of his tenure. A majority of voters said that they disapproved of the way Mr. Bush had managed the economy and the war in Iraq, and - echoing a refrain of Mr. Kerry's - that his tax cuts had favored the wealthy. Voters said that Mr. Kerry would do a better job of preserving Social Security, creating jobs and ending the war in Iraq.

Admittedly, the poll has responders answering that they continue "to see Mr. Kerry as an untrustworthy politician who will say what he thinks people want to hear. More than half of respondents said they considered him liberal, reflecting a dominant line of attack by Mr. Bush this fall."

But that's actually good news: if the viewers vote for Kerry, it should demolish the "liberal bad, conservative good" bleat for decades, which is good.

Meanwhile electoral-vote.com has Kerry not only leading now, but taking the presidency outright. The Dems now have Florida, and Pennsylvania, which if these trends hold gives Kerry the win America so desparately needs. If Ohio, New Mexico and Missouri goes Kerry (they're within the margin of error right now), it looks like a landslide for Kerry.

Is this why Karl Rove pulled his "I'm going under the wheels for you, master," stunt?

I'm cautiously optimistic, the other issue may be Republican cheating, a Rove trademark.

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