Saturday, October 02, 2004

Kerry Landslide?

I don't know why some folks still give Gallup any credit- they have consistently over-represented Republicans for years, despite readily available evidence (voting, registration) of true voting patterns.

That said, take a look at

While it technically shows a Bush "victory" if the election were held today...

1. Some of these polls are clearly outdated, and it would be delusional to believe that Bush's performance the other night convinced anyone who was not a Bush cultist to vote for him.

2. If elections are held in some places like Florida (Sept. 30) fairly (and that's a big if, given that state's Republican junta's reprehensible and treasonous history of denial of voting rights), Bush would almost certainly lose, given a) the recent uptick in Democratic Registrations, b) the elderly population there smells a rat with Bush, c) the Cuban's don't vote as a bloc anymore, and d)on domestic issues, there's only a downside for Bush if this is debated as it was last week (with 62.5 million people seeing Bush crash and burn. So, if Florida's anywhere near fair, Bush loses his "guaranteed" 296 electoral votes and just gets 269. Kerry's total, as of today, goes up to 265, (New Hampshire, being tied, doesn't go to anyone in their polls/calculations).

3. Next let's look at Ohio. a) 2% difference is less than the margin of error, b) undecideds generally break for the challenger- since the election is a referendum on the incumbent, and if the undecideds had already decided, they'd have done so for Bush by now. Score Ohio for Kerry. That gives Bush 249 electoral votes, and Kerry is over the top now to 285.

3. We can continue...Score Iowa for Kerry as of today. That gives Bush 242 electoral votes and Kerry 292. Why? Because their poll is pre-debate, the margin of error is small, there's a big undecided vote, and the undecides can push Iowa over the top.

4. New Mexico goes for Kerry, for the above reasons... That gives Bush 237, Kerry 297.

If Kerry does well in the next debate...and I suspect Bush will appear really, really stiff and artificial- he will "Gore" himself in trying not to act like his true self, which was on display for all to see the other night...if Kerry does well, this could well be a landslide.

Just look at all those states that are really weakly held by Bush.

One could argue that many of Kerry's states are weakly held, but if anyone thinks, for example, that Washington is going for Bush, they're crazy.

I expect though that maybe one Kerry state might defect, maybe Oregon.

No comments: